THE EVOLUTION OF NUCLEAR DOCTRINES IN SOUTH ASIA: IMPLICATIONS OF INDIA’S NFU POLICY REASSESSMENT

The No-First-Use (NFU) policy within the context of nuclear doctrines constitutes a formal declaration wherein a state possessing nuclear capabilities affirms its commitment not to initiate the use of nuclear weapons during a crisis. This commitment serves as a strategic assurance to adversaries, aiming to diminish the likelihood of the actual deployment of nuclear arms. The NFU pledge has remained a part of the declared Indian nuclear doctrine despite changes in other tenets of its nuclear posture over the years. However, the past decade has witnessed a notable upswing in statements, political declarations, and military developments hinting at the potential withdrawal of this commitment by Indian nuclear policymakers, thereby introducing complexities into the strategic stability of South Asia. In this context, this paper explores the evolution of nuclear doctrines in South Asia, with a specific focus on the repercussions of potential revocation of India’s NFU pledge. It delves into factors triggering India’s NFU policy revision, encompassing shifts in the global and regional security landscape, technological advancements, and diplomatic considerations. The paper also offers policy recommendations for Pakistan aimed at augmenting its own security in light of Indian developments, advocating for arms control measures, and delineating the international community’s role in promoting stability.