Power Plays amid Shifting Sands: Geopolitical Recalibrations in a Post-Assad Middle East

The Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS), Lahore, hosted a seminar titled “Power Plays amid Shifting Sands: Geopolitical Recalibrations in a Post-Assad Middle East” on 30 January 2025 to examine the new dynamics in this important region and suggest policy options.

 

In his opening remarks, Ambassador Muhammad Haroon Shaukat (Retd), Director, CASS, observed that the fall of President Assad’s regime had not only reshaped the Syrian political landscape but had also sent strong ripples across the region and the globe. It had unleashed overt and covert competition among regional and global actors for influence. He remarked that, having allowed Israel to demolish the military strength of Hamas and Hezbollah and weaken Iran, the US would now seek to reassert itself in the region and ensure a Middle East that posed no threat to Israel. Another key US interest could be to encourage a pro-democracy uprising in Iran. Many in the West viewed President Assad’s ouster as a strategic defeat for Russia and Iran. China had firmly resisted becoming embroiled in the situation and was working behind the scenes, upholding the principle of a “Syrian-led and Syrian-owned” resolution. The US, Israel, and Türkiye had achieved the objective of regime change in Damascus. The Gulf Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, may find their interests pulled in different directions. He stated, “In the coming months and years, a new balance of power in the Middle East will be defined.”

 

The keynote speaker, Ambassador Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry (Retd), began by asserting that the world was transitioning from a unipolar structure to a multipolar one. Emerging power centres were increasingly opting for unilateral actions. Military expenditures were on the rise, and warfare was evolving into hybrid forms. The US was restructuring global supply chains, with trade wars intensifying and protectionist measures increasing. There was a growing bifurcation in technological ecosystems led by the US and China. The US-China competition was impacting nearly every region. He also highlighted the shifting dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and the emergence of groups like QUAD and AUKUS. The very essence of globalisation—the spirit of interdependence and interconnectedness—was steadily eroding, while the UN was being sidelined.

 

The Syrian civil war culminated in December 2024 with the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. Since then, Israel has advanced its position in the Golan Heights, capturing part of the buffer zone. The future of the Kurdish region remained uncertain. Russia, despite maintaining two military bases in Syria, had experienced setbacks. The potential Balkanisation of Syria could not be ruled out. Arab resistance to Israel had significantly weakened. Arab and Muslim governments stood exposed for their ineffectiveness and inaction, while even the Arab street largely remained passive. Hamas and Hezbollah had been considerably weakened, and Iran was under pressure. Iran could deepen its ties with Russia, with which it had already signed a friendship treaty. China was cautiously observing the evolving situation while keeping its options open.

 

There were two schools of thought on Iran’s potential pursuit of a nuclear option. Figures like Javad Zarif advocated a return to the nuclear deal, while hardliners desired full nuclearisation. He warned that if Iran were to become a nuclear power, it could prompt countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt to follow suit. In Iran, a movement for regime change appeared to be gaining traction.

 

In Gaza, the scale of devastation was unprecedented. Regarding the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, Israel had already breached several terms of the agreement, raising doubts about the materialisation of the next phases. A political resolution to the Palestinian issue remained elusive. He questioned whether Israel was laying the groundwork for “Greater Israel”. There appeared to be a shift in US priorities in the Middle East, with a greater focus on ensuring Israel’s dominance rather than pursuing peace. He added that if Saudi Arabia were to join the Abraham Accords, Pakistan would be compelled to reassess its stance. The most striking lesson from recent events was the pressing need for Pakistan to achieve self-reliance.

 

Dr Nazir Hussain examined Syria’s complex history, asserting that Syria had never truly experienced peace since its independence in 1946. He described Syria’s socio-political composition as highly intricate, noting that, although the country had a Sunni majority, it was ruled by the Shia Alawite minority. The Arab Spring led to regime changes in seven Arab states; however, Syria resisted the uprising primarily with support from Russia and Iran. He asserted that with the fall of Assad, the state of Syria had collapsed. Syria remained fragmented, with no single group exercising full control over its entire territory.

Dr Hussain recalled the Arab Spring and Türkiye’s early attempts to offer a governance model combining “democracy, economic development, and political Islam.” He also referred to President Erdoğan’s concept of “Neo-Ottomanism.” Ultimately, Türkiye intervened directly in Syria between 2016 and 2017, establishing control over northern Syria to dismantle Kurdish forces, which posed a threat to Türkiye’s national security. Currently, Türkiye hosts three million Syrian refugees.

 

As for Saudi Arabia, it is a status quo power. Long before the Iran-Syria alliance took shape, Saudi Arabia was wary of Syria’s interference in Lebanon. The most notable example was the assassination of Rafic Hariri, for which Syria was widely blamed. Riyadh’s ultimate goal was to “pull Syria away from Tehran’s strategic orbit”—a goal shared by other GCC states. The situation had diminished Iran’s regional footprint. Russia and China would continue to support Iran’s national security interests. Dr Hussain projected that the four-way regional rivalry would persist, and uncertainty and instability would continue to prevail in the region.

Ambassador Javed Hafeez (Retd) underscored the necessity of acknowledging key realities, particularly the US role in the region and Israel’s growing influence. Since its inception in 1948, Israel has functioned as a US proxy in the Middle East. The US-Israel strategic partnership has been further reinforced in the wake of the Gaza conflict. While President Biden’s administration imposed limited restrictions on Israel, President Donald Trump lifted all restrictions on military aid to Israel.

 

The interactive session generated insightful discussions, with unanimity that the global order was evolving towards multipolarity. Major powers were prioritising their strategic interests rather than taking positions on divisive issues. The strategic interest of the US in the Middle East was to ensure that Israel remained the dominant power in the region. Regarding the low-key approach of Russia and China on developments in Syria, it was pointed out that Russia was overstretched due to its conflict with Ukraine, while “China, guided by Confucian strategic thinking, takes a long-term approach and refrains from short-term reactions.”

The President of CASS, Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd), in his concluding remarks, stated that the fall of the Assad regime had widened the power vacuum in the heart of the Middle East. That seismic shift raised profound questions about Syria’s future. Once synonymous with resilience, the Syrian nation was struggling to find its footing amid chaos and uncertainty. He added that the fall of the Assad regime was the culmination of systemic failures. By 2024, the cracks in this foundation had become irreparable.

 

The President affirmed that “Pakistan’s stance on Syria remains consistent and principled.” Islamabad has always supported Syria’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. The longstanding ties between the two nations are rooted in military cooperation and mutual respect, highlighting Pakistan’s interest in Syria’s stability. Alongside other major Islamic countries, Pakistan must act as a force for peace and stability. He emphasised, “The way forward for Syria lies in fostering inclusivity, reconciliation, and reconstruction.” With collective effort, peace and stability are achievable. The meeting concluded with a vote of thanks by the President.