Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Choices in the Evolving Global Order

The Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS), Lahore conducted a seminar on the theme of “Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Choices in the Evolving Global Order” on 11 July, 2023. The seminar featured four former ambassadors, namely Ambassador (Retd) Javid Husain, Ambassador (Retd) Naghmana Hashmi, Ambassador (Retd) Riffat Masood and Ambassador (Retd) Asif Durrani, as guest speakers. Their statements were followed by a Q&A session. Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd), President, CASS, Lahore, made the concluding statement while summing up the recommendations.

 

In his introductory remarks, Ambassador (Retd) Muhammad Haroon Shaukat provided an overview of the evolving global order. He asserted that US regards China as its principal competitor. In the face of surging US-China tensions, India has become a key strategic partner of the US with serious implications for Pakistan. He alluded to many challenges and limitations while navigating through a fractured global order. He emphasised the primary importance of strategic partnership with China, a reset of ties with the US, and reinforcement of relations with Russia, P5, the EU states and the emerging markets. He also emphasised the importance of a peaceful neighbourhood. He added that with India, Pakistan seeks peace with dignity and that a just settlement of Kashmir dispute is central to Pakistan’s policy. There are enormous opportunities in the Gulf region. Pakistan needs to become a development and technology partner with fraternal countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Its foremost priority, therefore, should be to strengthen its national power with a strong economy at its core and self-reliance.

 

Ambassador (Retd) Javid Husain first shed light on foreign policy’s conceptual framework, stating that it must be synchronised with the national political, security and economic policies, based on a realistic assessment of the geopolitical environment.The dramatic rise of China has posed a serious challenge to the US global supremacy. The defining feature of the 21st century is and will remain the growing US-China rivalry. The US is strengthening its alliances in the Indo-Pacific e.g. Quad and AUKUS, etc. India is the strategic partner of choice for the US. The key question is whether the US and China would be able to avoid a war.

 

The world order is now gradually evolving towards a multipolar world and there is even the distinct possibility of the emergence of a Sino-Russian bloc in some form. In the emerging multipolar world, besides US and China, several other powers like India, Indonesia, Brazil, Nigeria, Russia, Japan, and Turkey will play an increasingly important role. The challenge facing Pakistan’s diplomacy is to strike the right balance between its vital security and economic links with China as against its valuable economic and commercial ties with the US-led West.

 

The fast growing US-India strategic partnership has far-reaching implications for Pakistan’s security and economic well-being. The need of the hour for Pakistan is to build friendly relations with China, Turkey, Iran, the Arab states of the Persian Gulf region, Central Asian Republics, and Russia while stabilising itself politically and accelerating its economic growth. The Ambassador pointed out that India wishes to establish its hegemony in South Asia and sees Pakistan as an obstacle in the realisation of this strategic goal. He felt that friendly relations between Pakistan and India will remain elusive in the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, both countries, should keep their lines of communication open to defuse tensions, undertake CBM’s to reduce the risk of outbreak of hostilities and continue efforts to resolve outstanding disputes, especially the Kashmir dispute, and resume bilateral trade on a mutually beneficial basis. He also said that Pakistan should continue its moral, diplomatic and political support to Kashmir.

 

Commenting on the situation in Afghanistan, he said that Islamabad in concert with other countries, especially Iran, should encourage the Taliban to moderate their human rights policies, broaden their political base, and deny space to terrorist groups on the Afghan soil. On Pakistan’s relations with Iran, Ambassador (Retd) Husain stressed the need to strengthen full gamut of relations with Iran, both bilaterally and within the framework of ECO. Attention should be given to early implementation of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline which can be later extended to China.

 

Ambassador (Retd) Naghmana Hashmi spoke about the unique, special and unwavering nature of Pakistan-China relationship. It is an all-weather relationship that has a trajectory of its own. She explained two centennial goals of new China. The first goal to eradicate complete and absolute poverty has been achieved. The second, the rejuvenation of the motherland aims for the peaceful unification of all the islands that belong to China, which includes Taiwan as well. If US-China rivalry intensifies in the Indo-Pacific region, Pakistan may be affected. She mentioned how CPEC, which makes Pakistan strategically important, also renders it vulnerable. Calling for a clear alignment with China, the Ambassador said that there should be not an iota of doubt in anybody’s mind about where Pakistan’s strategic compass should be focused on. The Ambassador also highlighted how China advises Pakistan to have good relations with India, with Europe, with the Americans, with everybody, adding that Pakistan’s importance will multiply if it is strong from within.

 

In her video message, Ambassador (Retd) Riffat Masood talked about the two sides of India, highlighting how the world buys the image that India projects, whereas the other side i.e. poverty, deprivation and discrimination is ignored. She said that while claiming to be a secular state, India remains deeply divided along caste and ethnic lines but manages to evoke a sense of unity and nationhood.

 

The Ambassador said that the Indians do not want to see Pakistan as its equal. India wants a Pakistan that it can dominate. It perceives Pakistan as an obstacle to its hegemonic ambitions in South Asia. She said that Pakistan should adopt a pragmatic, rational, and cohesive policy in its dealings with India. She highlighted that the current state of affairs reflects the fragility of the relationship, which is primarily rooted in mutual mistrust and a lack of political will. About India’s arrogance and its unwillingness to have any contacts with us, Pakistan should follow a policy of ‘strategic patience’. The Ambassador said that there should be no compromise on the issue of Kashmir. Pakistan cannot afford to abandon the Kashmiris or put the issue on the back burner.

 

Ambassador (Retd) Asif Durrani stated that peace and stability in Afghanistan should be a priority for Pakistan. Discussing the post-withdrawal scenario in Afghanistan, he highlighted the restrictions imposed by the Taliban and the worsening humanitarian crisis. He expressed concern that the deteriorating economic conditions could push the country towards chaos.

 

He emphasised the need to make contingency plans to receive an influx of Afghan refugees should the humanitarian situation worsen. He said that the major problem with the Taliban regime is that a number of terrorist groups, including TTP, are taking shelter there. Calling for pressing the Taliban to firmly deal with the terrorist groups, he made it clear that Pakistan will make no compromises on TTP as TTP cannot challenge the writ of the state. Ambassador Durrani said that there is a need to encourage Afghan Taliban to address the issues of inclusivity and protection of human rights. He said that Pakistan should maintain friendly relations with the Taliban regime but not try to patronise them. He recommended that Pakistan should not rush to recognise the Taliban regime and go for a regional solution.

 

He added that Pakistan should concentrate on trade with Central Asia through Afghanistan by involving Afghan traders. He stressed that Pakistan may continue its assistance, especially in the health and education sectors. Pakistan may also offer training facilities to the Afghan security forces, only if requested.

 

Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd) in his concluding remarks, mentioned the challenges Pakistan faces in implementing its foreign policy. He said that Pakistan’s foreign policy should be focusing on economic diplomacy, and it should exploit opportunities for investment, trade and economic partnerships to strengthen and develop itself. He emphasised the importance of enhancing strategic ties with China, whose flagship project, CPEC, promises valuable outcomes. Regarding US Indo-Pacific strategy, he said that US designs will not materialise in the long-term with India as the latter is only cashing in on short-term gains. Commenting on Pakistan’s ties with India, the President said that is imperative for Pakistan to manage its relations with India for harmony and peace in the region, and to avoid tensions and hostilities. A meaningful dialogue is the best way forward with sovereign dignity, he added. He also called for improving ties with rapidly-growing Middle Eastern states, Turkey, Afghanistan and Iran while also balancing ties with the US. He suggested pursuing the gas pipeline project with Iran seriously and also called for collaborations with Russia, European Union and international markets. Air Marshal Suleiman concluded by saying that Pakistan must balance opportunities, including trade potential, and challenges, including regional threats and terrorism, as it seeks to define its place and influence on the international stage amid an evolving world order. The meeting concluded with a vote of thanks by the President.