SEMINAR

Managing Pakistan’s Relations with India

June 8, 2023

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president

Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd)

SEMINAR COORDINATOR

Ambassador (Retd) Muhammad Haroon Shaukat

EDITOR

Hassan Arshad

RAPPORTEURS

Sabina Babar & Waqas Mahmood Dogar

Executive Summary

A seminar on “Managing Pakistan’s Relations with India” was organised by the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS), Lahore on 8 June 2023. The seminar was arranged keeping in view the existing stalemate in the bilateral relations between Pakistan and India. The seminar featured a keynote address by the former Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Mr. Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri, followed by an extensive Q&A session. President CASS, Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd), made the concluding remarks while summing up the recommendations.

In his introductory remarks, Ambassador (Retd) Muhammad Haroon Shaukat, Director Foreign Affairs CASS Lahore, gave a brief overview of historical perspective of the bilateral relations between Pakistan and India. He shed light on the hardening of India’s stance towards Pakistan under BJP, especially since 2014 when Mr. Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister. Pakistan had to downgrade the bilateral relations following India’s illegal and unilateral annexation of the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) on 5 August 2019. He drew attention to India’s new role as a linchpin to the US strategy on Indo-Pacific, aimed primarily to contain and encircle China. This had led to a deepening of security and economic ties between India and the US, with obvious implications for Pakistan. Reviewing the options available to Pakistan, he underscored that Pakistan desired a relationship with India based on sovereign equality, mutual respect, and peaceful settlement of disputes, especially a just settlement of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute. However, currently, there was an impasse in bilateral relations with India. He then raised a number of questions to open a broad canvas for deliberations in the seminar.

Former Foreign Minister Mr. Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri gave a comprehensive presentation on Pakistan-India relations, based on his firsthand experience as the former Foreign Minister (2003–2007) and his subsequent contacts with Indian leaders, senior diplomats and opinion makers within the framework of think tanks and backchannel diplomacy in New Delhi, UAE and London. He asserted that it was in India’s interest to have good relations with Pakistan and likewise it was in Pakistan’s interest to have good relations with India. A climate of tension and hostility did not suit either of the two. With regard to the possible resolution of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, Mr. Kasuri affirmed that every Head of State and Government in Pakistan, right from the beginning, was compelled to think out of the box while referring at the same time to United Nations Security Council resolutions. This, he added, was also true of the Indian leaders, who despite all sorts of tall claims found it in their own interest to talk to Pakistan.The politicians pander to their domestic constituencies when in opposition but are compelled to take a practical view when in power. The former Foreign Minister believed that the ‘Four Point Proposal’ was still relevant adding that his book “Neither a Hawk nor a Dove” provided the only authentic account of backchannel negotiations from 2003–2007 when, according to him, a solution of Kashmir issue was within grasp of the two countries.

Mr. Kasuri claimed that his book contained the confirmed account of backchannel talks on the Four Point Formula, as advance copies of the book were sent to President Musharraf, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and opposition leader LK Advani. They all attended the inauguration of his book launches in Karachi and in New Delhi. “They would never have come if they had felt that I had lied or misrepresented.” He added, “I believe in diplomacy as in life. Lies kill everything.”At the same time, he acknowledged that he came under a lot of criticism from some retired ambassadors, generals and think tanks, “who do not have to deal with the situation on the ground.” Mr. Kasuri remarked that Lambah’s recently launched book In Pursuit of Peace: India-Pakistan Relations Under Six Prime Ministers, vindicates his position. He emphasised that Modi, though not a lover of Pakistan or Muslims, found it necessary to talk to Pakistan, through an emissary, as late as 2017, as corroborated by a leading Indian journalist Suhasni Haider. Lambah confirmed that “there appeared to be an intent to continue the backchannel”. Referring to 5 August 2019 illegal actions of Mr. Narendra Modi, Mr. Kasuri affirmed that “the idea of Kashmir is alive because of the freedom struggle by the Kashmiris. The issue will never be settled if the Pakistan is not involved in it”.

On Operation Swift Retort, Mr. Kasuri remarked, before the operation, there was a lot of pressure on Pakistan government to show restraint but peace should never come out of weakness. It was important for Pakistan to show its strength. India lost two aircraft and one Indian pilot was taken captive. The former Foreign Minister stated that today India is seen as strong economically, but only three years ago it was regarded as a failing state as it could not cope with corona pandemic and had 4.5 million deaths. He expressed the hope that Pakistan will soon experience a positive turn around.

Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd), President CASS Lahore, in his concluding remarks, briefly dwelt upon the history of adversarial relations between the two countries, mainly due to the unresolved Jammu and Kashmir dispute. He felt that unfortunately deep mistrust continued to plague the relationship between both nations.He also gave an overview of painful events of the creation of the two countries, with approximately 17 million people migrating amid significant violence and abuse and traced the chequered history of conflict and dialogue over the past 75 years. He observed that in August 2019, India violated UNSC resolutions and repealed Article 370 and 35A of the Indian constitution. India thus annexed the occupied territory and has been forcibly altering the demographics of the occupied valley. As a result, Pakistan downgraded diplomatic ties and stopped bilateral trade. At the end of his concluding remarks, the President CASS enunciated that the reality of Pakistan-India relations is that of a history of lost opportunities. Trust deficit and domestic constituencies have played a negative role. He concluded by stating that a visionary leadership was required on both sides to take a flexible and focused approach.

Key Takeaways

A Principled Approach to Pakistan’s Relations with India

Pakistan desires good neighbourly relations with India based on sovereign equality, mutual respect, and the peaceful settlement of all outstanding issues, especially the Jammu and Kashmir dispute.
Pakistan desires to be treated as an equal and regards Kashmir as the core issue for peace and friendship with India. India does not accept this viewpoint.
India’s refusal to have a meaningful discussion on Kashmir and its hegemonic policies has been a recurring source of conflict and tension between the two countries.

Kashmir Issue

The people of Jammu and Kashmir have an inalienable right to self- determination, as promised to them by the international community within the framework of relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council.
The Kashmir issue is alive and will remain so as long as the valiant people of Jammu and Kashmir refuse to accept the illegal Indian occupation and continue their brave struggle.
India’s illegal and unilateral actions of 05 August, 2019, cannot negate the international legality on the Jammu & Kashmir issue. The people of Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan, and the international community have categorically rejected India’s illegal actions.
International human rights organisations have emphatically condemned the gross human rights violations and inhuman atrocities being carried out by India in IIOJK.

Hardening of the Indian position under the BJP

Under the BJP, especially since 2014, when Mr. Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister, India’s attitude towards Pakistan has hardened.
The Indian government, manifesting its hostility towards Pakistan, seems determined to cast Pakistan in a negative light and is squandering all opportunities to de-escalate tensions.
No bilateral contacts took place on the sidelines of the SCO Foreign Ministers’ Meeting which Pakistan’s Foreign Minister attended in Goa.

Possibility of a Way Forward

The history of Pakistan-India relations is one of missed opportunities.
A climate of tension and hostility is neither in the interest of India nor Pakistan.
It is in India’s interest to have good relations with Pakistan, and it is in Pakistan’s interest to have good relations with India.
A meaningful and uninterrupted dialogue is the only way forward for resolving longstanding disputes, creating a climate of trust and confidence, and creating conditions for peace and security.

Out-of-the-Box Thinking

The former Foreign Minister, Mr. Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri, believes that those in power in Pakistan have been compelled to think out of the box. This was true even of the Indian leaders, who, despite all sorts of tall claims, found it in their interest to talk to Pakistan.

Operation Swift Retort

Before Operation Swift Retort, there was a lot of pressure on the Pakistani government to show restraint, but peace should never come out of weakness. It was important for Pakistan to show its strength. India lost two aircraft, and one Indian pilot was taken captive.

Four-Point Proposal

The former Foreign Minister, Mr Khurshid Mahmood Kasuri, feels that the Four Point Proposal is still relevant for a possible dialogue with India.
He asserts that his book Neither a Hawk nor a Dove, provides the only authentic account of backchannel negotiations from 2003–2007, when, according to him, a solution to the Kashmir issue was within the grasp of the two countries.
The advance copies of his book were provided to the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the Indian opposition leader Mr. L.K. Advani, and President Musharraf, none of whom challenged his account.
Even the current Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi, found it necessary to talk to Pakistan even as late as 2017. This fact is confirmed in the late Satinder Kumar Lambah’s book, ‘In Pursuit of Peace: India-Pakistan Relations under Six Prime Ministers’.
Populism is often used as a tool for political manipulation.

The US and its Indo-Pacific Strategy

The main purpose of the current US Indo-Pacific strategy is to confront the rising power of China. In this context, India has become a strategic partner for the US. This has strategic implications for Pakistan.
China is Pakistan’s principal strategic partner.

Pakistan’s Internal Challenges

To overcome Pakistan’s dependence on external aid, there is an imperative need for internal unity, stability, and good governance.

Essentials of Back Channel Diplomacy

Diplomacy must be based on truthfulness and credibility. Backchannel emissaries should have direct access to the top and work away from the media glare.

Policy Considerations

Backchannel diplomacy

Backchannel diplomacy has served as an effective tool of communication in the past. The two key advantages include confidentiality and non-attribution. However, such an initiative should only be undertaken after due diligence and analysis by the concerned stakeholders.

Pursuit of Internal Stability and Economic Self-Reliance

The success of any country’s diplomacy is closely related to its internal situation and the strength of its economy. Pakistani leadership needs to accord top priority to political stability, internal harmony, economic self- reliance, and inclusive growth and development.
An internally strong Pakistan will have more diplomatic space to resolve complex external issues.

Emphasising Pakistan’s Geostrategic Significance

Pakistan should leverage its geostrategic importance in the context of its strategic location, its potential to become a fast-emerging economy, its large population with a youth bulge, its military strength, and being the only Muslim country with nuclear weapons.
Pakistan should endeavour to solidify relations with all great and emerging powers.
While China is Pakistan’s most steadfast and reliable strategic partner, Pakistan should continue to have close ties with the US and the EU. Pakistan should also expand its multifaceted ties with Russia.
Special focus should be accorded to building close relations with emerging economies, especially the friendly countries.

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