Charting the Resilient Economic Future for Pakistan Post-IMF: Challenges and Prospects

The seminar titled “Charting the Resilient Economic Future for Pakistan Post-IMF: Challenges and Prospects” was organised by the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies, Lahore, on 12th December 2024. The discussion commenced with the keynote address by Dr Rashid Amjad, former Vice Chancellor of PIDE University. It was followed by insightful presentations by two experts: Dr Khaqan Hasan Najeeb, former advisor to the Finance Ministry, and Mr Almas Hyder, Chairman of SPEL Technologies. An extensive interactive session, followed by concluding remarks by Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd), President of CASS, Lahore, rounded off the seminar.

 

Dr Amjad’s keynote address outlined the challenges and prospects for Pakistan’s economic future in a post-IMF scenario. Reflecting on Pakistan’s journey, he highlighted both the nation’s resilience and the structural flaws that have hindered sustained growth. Dr Amjad critiqued the historical failure to implement necessary reforms, emphasising the ongoing struggles with fiscal mismanagement, corruption, and an inefficient governance system. He pointed to the significant role of youth and women in future economic growth and argued that strategic investments in education and innovation could help Pakistan leapfrog traditional development stages. Ultimately, he called for a concerted effort to address structural challenges, enhance political will, and empower local leadership for Pakistan to achieve long-term economic stability and prosperity.

 

Dr Khaqan Hassan Najeeb highlighted the critical need for structural reforms and skill development to reduce Pakistan’s dependency on the IMF and foster sustainable economic growth. He pointed out the recurring reliance on IMF programmes over the past two decades and emphasised the need to address underlying structural issues, such as ineffective human resource policies. Dr Najeeb proposed a focus on innovation, productivity, and job creation, particularly through agricultural reforms to enhance export potential and improve yields.

 

He outlined a comprehensive strategy to achieve economic stability, focusing on human capital development, fiscal management, and reducing over-reliance on external solutions. Dr Najeeb stressed the importance of reforms in sectors like taxation, pension systems, energy governance, and privatisation. He also called for the rationalisation of state-owned enterprises and a more efficient energy sector. Drawing inspiration from successful East Asian economies, Dr Najeeb advocated for home-grown solutions, data-driven decision-making, and strategic investments to increase per capita income and reduce fiscal vulnerabilities over the next 20 years.

 

Mr. Almas Hyder’s address focused on enhancing Pakistan’s economic resilience through value addition and export competitiveness. He stressed the inefficiencies of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the need for a shift towards value-added products, which can stabilise exports and reduce dependence on raw material prices. Using examples from textiles and global success stories, he highlighted the importance of strategic planning, skilled workforces, and pro-business policies. Mr. Hyder also called for improvements in education, labor laws, and healthcare to better align the workforce with market demands. He concluded by urging investments in new technologies, such as AI, to ensure long-term competitiveness and growth.

 

In the interactive session, Dr Najeeb highlighted the importance of long-term strategies for sustainable employment, advocating for structural reforms and reducing governance inefficiencies to restore investor confidence. Dr Najeeb also called for addressing critical issues such as electricity losses and agricultural stagnation to ensure economic growth. Dr Amjad supported these views, noting early signs of progress but stressing the importance of attracting foreign investments and empowering local institutions. Both speakers agreed that while progress has been made, comprehensive reforms are essential for long-term prosperity.

 

In response to the question on improving tax collection from agriculture and real estate sectors, Dr Amjad highlighted India’s approach, where agricultural income tax is rarely imposed except for commercial farming. He reflected on Pakistan’s historical attempts at taxing agriculture, emphasising the political challenges, especially due to the influence of powerful feudal interests. Despite the difficulties, he stressed the importance of taxing agriculture and real estate for a more equitable system, advocating for gradual implementation to build public confidence. 

 

In his closing remarks, Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd), President of CASS, Lahore, emphasised the need for Pakistan to reduce its reliance on external financial assistance by implementing structural reforms in taxation, energy, and governance. He highlighted the importance of shifting from a debt-driven economy to one focused on resilient growth, with diversification into emerging sectors like fintech and agri-tech. Air Marshal Suleiman also stressed the role of public-private partnerships (PPPs) in driving infrastructure development and attracting investment. He expressed confidence that, with these reforms, Pakistan could achieve a stable, self-sufficient economy and thanked the guest speakers for their valuable insights.