An Analysis of US Sanctions on Pakistan’s Missile Programme

The Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS), Lahore, organised a roundtable discussion titled “An Analysis of US Sanctions on Pakistan’s Missile Programme” on 14 March 2025. The session featured insights from Ambassador Zamir Akram (Retd), who brought extensive expertise on strategic stability, arms control, and non-proliferation. The discussion provided an in-depth examination of the recent sanctions imposed by the US on Pakistan’s missile programme and their broader geopolitical implications.

 

Ambassador Haroon Shaukat, Director Foreign Affairs at CASS, Lahore, opened the session by welcoming participants and expressing appreciation for Ambassador Zamir Akram’s presence. He outlined the recent US sanctions imposed on four Pakistani entities, while also highlighting the simultaneous relaxation of licensing requirements for advanced military technologies to India. He argued that such selective measures reinforce regional asymmetries and reflect a broader pattern of discriminatory policies that undermine global non-proliferation regimes.

 

Despite these sanctions, Ambassador Shaukat emphasised the importance of enduring Pakistan-US relations, particularly in the economic and developmental domains. He noted that the US remains Pakistan’s largest export market and a significant source of foreign direct investment and remittances. Stressing the need for continued diplomatic engagement, he urged both countries to work towards strengthening ties based on mutual respect and trust.

 

Ambassador Zamir Akram, the guest speaker, provided a detailed analysis of the recent US sanctions on Pakistan’s missile programme and their broader strategic implications. He traced the history of US sanctions on Pakistan, highlighting that such measures have posed recurring challenges since India’s nuclear tests of 1974. He explained that, although these sanctions are framed under non-proliferation concerns, they ultimately serve to limit Pakistan’s deterrence capabilities while facilitating India’s military modernisation. The discussion also highlighted the role of dual-use technology in missile development and how both India and Pakistan have relied on external support to advance their respective programmes.

 

Ambassador Akram noted that the latest US sanctions, imposed under Executive Order 13382, introduce a new justification, asserting that Pakistan’s missiles could threaten the US itself. This marks a significant shift from earlier arguments centred on regional stability and non-proliferation. He argued that these claims, made during the Biden administration’s final days, were likely intended to shape the incoming Trump administration’s approach towards Pakistan.

 

The speaker highlighted Pakistan’s rationale for developing its missile programme, which is primarily aimed at countering India’s expanding military capabilities. Ambassador Akram detailed how India’s offshore military bases in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, advancements in space technology, and growing missile arsenal necessitate Pakistan’s continued investment in credible deterrence.

 

He also emphasised that Pakistan’s strategic doctrine remains focused on India, and any claims of Pakistani missiles threatening the US are baseless. While Pakistan has offered assurances to the US regarding the intent of its programme, it remains unwilling to compromise on its strategic capabilities.

 

The speaker reaffirmed that Pakistan cannot afford to freeze or curb its missile development in light of India’s military expansion. He called for Pakistan to maintain diplomatic engagement with the US, advocate a balanced approach to non-proliferation, and strengthen strategic partnerships with other allies. He also stressed the importance of proactively shaping global narratives to counter misperceptions and ensure that Pakistan’s security interests are not undermined by external pressures.

 

The interactive session explored the broader geopolitical implications of these sanctions on Pakistan’s missile programme, particularly in the context of US-China strategic competition. Ambassador Akram argued that the global order remains in flux, with countries such as Australia, Japan, and the European Union balancing ties between the US and China. He noted that India has leveraged its strategic partnership with the US to strengthen its defence capabilities, positioning itself as a “net security provider” in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

 

The discussion also addressed concerns over whether Pakistan’s missile programme is perceived as a direct threat to the US and its allies, particularly Israel. Ambassador Akram recalled that, while the US had previously raised concerns about Pakistan’s missile capabilities in relation to Israel, such claims have subsided in recent years. This time, the broader US narrative aims to portray Pakistan’s long-range missile development as a potential threat to the US itself.

 

He reiterated that Pakistan’s deterrence strategy remains focused on India, and Islamabad has consistently provided assurances to Washington that its missile capabilities are defensive. However, Pakistan would not compromise on its strategic deterrence, especially in light of India’s growing military footprint in the IOR and space domain.

 

A key concern raised was whether the Trump administration would escalate sanctions on Pakistan, particularly given the presence of pro-India figures within US policymaking circles. Ambassador Akram noted that, while the Trump administration is currently preoccupied with global crises, Pakistan must prepare for renewed pressure in the future. He highlighted that Washington’s long-standing policy has sought to curb Pakistan’s strategic capabilities while enabling India’s military expansion. Given this discriminatory approach, Pakistan must remain firm in defending its strategic interests while simultaneously engaging in diplomatic efforts to counter negative perceptions in Washington.

 

Ambassador Akram emphasised that no country’s missile programme is entirely indigenous, pointing out that both the US and India have historically relied on external expertise. He reiterated that sanctions, rather than weakening Pakistan, have historically strengthened its resolve to develop indigenous capabilities.

 

While Pakistan cannot alter US policy overnight, it must continue to highlight the discriminatory nature of US non-proliferation measures, maintain credible deterrence, and ensure its security interests are safeguarded amidst shifting global power dynamics.

 

Air Marshal Asim Suleiman, President CASS, Lahore, in his concluding remarks said that the recent US sanctions on Pakistan, imposed under the guise of non-proliferation, reflect a broader pattern of coercive policies driven by geopolitical motives. Pakistan has rightly rejected these discriminatory measures, which undermine regional stability and ignore India’s unchecked military expansion. President CASS added that such actions threaten South Asia’s deterrence-based security architecture and strain global non-proliferation regimes through evident double standards. Despite mounting pressure, including six rounds of sanctions in four years, Pakistan remains resolute in safeguarding its strategic autonomy. Committed to regional stability, arms control, and responsible nuclear stewardship, Pakistan advocates a calculated, diplomatic response focused on self-reliance, credible deterrence, and continued engagement with global partners, including the US.