India’s Dwindling Regional Influence

Six months into the decisive setback against Pakistan, India is still all talk, no show. Since May, India has been desperately trying to regain the lost political and military ground through both aggressive statements against Pakistan and by conducting exercises like Trishul and Ram Prahar.

However, nothing has helped India cover up the failure of Operation Sindoor, which shattered the myth of its military superiority and exposed that its ‘big power’ image is only a product of narrative. Recently, one event after another has highlighted that India’s regional influence is dwindling.

On the strategic front, India’s quiet exit from its only overseas airbase in Tajikistan, which was 20 km from Kashmir, has recently surfaced in the media. While some Indian reports posit that the withdrawal took place in 2022, others indicate that the process was completed only last month and has been a significant setback for India’s strategic posture. The Ayni airbase was considered a key asset against Pakistan.

Tajikistan, which enjoys solid relations with Pakistan, Russia, and China, decided to upend India’s military presence within its territory. The May 2025 war not only weakened India’s influence in South Asia but also had echoes in Central Asia. The Central Asian Republics realise India’s potential and intent to destabilise the region by its aggressive posture. Therefore, they seek to realign their strategic direction and forge stronger partnerships.

On the diplomatic front, Iran’s suspension of visa-free entry for Indians shows the increasing mistrust and threat perception. Despite its strong ties with Iran, India chose neutrality in the June 2025 Iran-Israel war and quietly supported Israel’s aggressive designs. Most of the spies that Iranian agencies caught during the conflict were also Indian nationals. On the contrary, Pakistan helped facilitate a ceasefire, resulting in a renewed momentum in Pakistan-Iran relations.

Moreover, in desperation, India has extended an olive branch towards the Taliban government of Afghanistan, which it once regarded as terrorists. Recently, senior Taliban leaders, during their visits to India, gave statements against Pakistan. This Indo-Taliban rapprochement is only a pressure tactic as India seeks to threaten Pakistan with a two-front war.

The emerging alliance between two ultra-right-wing extremist regimes not only tarnishes India’s image of a liberal state but also threatens regional stability. Furthermore, India has lost substantial political ground in Bangladesh after it refused to normalise relations with Dhaka’s provisional government.

On the military-industrial front, Indonesia paused the deal to purchase Rafale jets from France after the May 2025 war. Instead, it is considering purchasing J-10Cs, a war-proven machine which, in the hands of PAF’s well-trained pilots, successfully downed four Indian Rafales during Zarb-e-Karrar. It is worth noting that apart from the jets, superior planning, indigenous technologies, visionary leadership, multidomain capabilities, integrated strategy, and operational expertise were also instrumental in PAF’s victory.

The Tejas crash during the Dubai Airshow 2025 exposed serious flaws in the aircraft’s avionics, design, engine, and control system, raising questions about India’s technical prowess. Tejas is the oldest component of India’s indigenous military modernisation programme, but still faces structural and bureaucratic challenges.

This fatal crash has greatly undermined its export potential, as Armenia suspended negotiations to procure 12 Tejas fighters. Though the decision must be based on many factors, its timing has dented the aircraft’s reputation in the aviation market. Conversely, on the sidelines of the Dubai Airshow, Pakistan signed an MoU with a friendly country to sell JF-17s, demonstrating Pakistan’s growing potential in the global aviation market.

The situation on India’s end is gloomy. Its diplomatic, military, and strategic partnerships are fraying. Its indigenous modernisation programme suffers from serious structural flaws. Every step that New Delhi takes towards restoring its image post-May 2025 comes back to bite it. Amidst all this, India’s continuous threats of Operation Sindoor 2.0 amount to nothing more than sabre-rattling, and such belligerent policies tend to disrupt the already fragile regional peace.

In this emerging strategic space, Pakistan must continue to act as a stabiliser, a credible military partner, and a political ally to states in South Asia and beyond. Moreover, Pakistan must forge stronger economic partnerships with regional states to enjoy long-term mutual benefits.

It must also expedite efforts for domestic stability through better governance, economic progress, and improved security. By improving both domestic conditions and external relations, Pakistan can ensure that India does not exploit the strategic space again.

All in all, the idea that India can emerge as a regional hegemon has become outdated after its defeat in the May war at the hands of the PAF under the leadership of Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu. The region is moving towards strategic realignment, where states have choices beyond traditional partners.

Influence can no longer be imposed by controlling the narrative; it can only be earned through real actions. Given the current developments, the question of India’s so-called rise has become increasingly irrelevant.