Implication of a Pandemic On National Security: Covid 19 as a Case Study

Spread of COVID-19

• COVID-19 was declared a health emergency in January 2020 and an epidemic in March 2020, and is still a threat as an endemic. From Wuhan to 180 countries, it took less than a hundred days to spread.
• COVID-19 has several characteristics of an ideal biological weapon, including a high transmission rate, long incubation period, airborne transmission, and significant death rate.
• No convincing scientific evidence suggests that COVID-19 was created as a bioweapon. If it was, then it raises serious questions such as who invented it, who was the target, and what were the objectives.

Pakistan’s Response

• The National Command Operations Centre (NCOC), which spearheaded the response campaign against COVID-19, has been replaced by the Centre for Communicable Diseases (CDC), established in the National Institute of Health.
• Devolved federal structures create challenges for a central, coherent, and coordinated response in face of a pandemic.
• The balance between life and livelihood demands targeted Non- pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) like smart lockdowns.

A Blow to Humanity and Healthcare Systems

• There were 757 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 6.85 million deaths globally.
• The global life expectancy, post- COVID-19, has reduced by two years; from 73 to 71. It fell the most in Europe and America.
• Approximately 5 percent of COVID-19 patients suffer from complications like multiple organ failure, which requires ventilation support.
• The percentage of GDP allocated to the health sector in Pakistan was just one percent in 2019 (Rs. 372 billion approximately) to 2.2 percent of GDP in 2022 (Rs. 913 billion approximately) which is considerably less than the 5 percent requirement by WHO.

Challenges to the Economy

• The year 2020 saw a global debt surge of 28 percent, the highest in the last 50 years. An estimated 97 million people were relegated to living on less than US $1.90 a day.
• The pandemic resulted in 8.8 percent decline in working hours globally which equals 255 million jobs. Most of the lost jobs were in the low-wage cadre, resulting in further widening of the socio- economic gap between rich and poor.
• As per Global Peace Index 2021, out of 163 countries, 105 recorded an increase in military spending, highlighting the emphasis on traditional security and possible future conflicts even when human security was under stress.
• The restrictions on the movement of goods and services resulted in a 5.3 percent decline in global merchandise trade which is the largest drop since the Great Depression.
• In 2020, community mobility declined by more than 70 percent, and global passenger traffic declined by 66 percent resulting in a revenue loss of US 116 billion.

Impact on National Security

• Pandemics are low-probability, high-consequence events that can concurrently target both traditional and non-traditional security paradigms.
• National security is mostly seen from the perspective of securing borders. COVID-19 has incorporated non-traditional security threats to its understanding such as pandemics, natural disasters, and climate change.
• COVID-19 has highlighted the challenges of global interdependence and has emphasised the need for a state to be as self-reliant in its resources as possible to protect the vitals of its national security.
• The key negative trend in 2020 was the global rise in civil unrest which rose globally by 10 percent and created a challenge for internal security.

Threat of Next-Generation Bioweapons

• “Next Generation Bioweapons” are traditional biological agents genetically modified for increased survivability, infectivity, rapid spread, and resistance to drugs.
• The study of genes and molecular biology can one day develop viruses that can target specific ethnic groups, particular crops, food, and some specialist viruses can even destroy infrastructure and equipment.
• The bioweapon threat has been raised by the Americans in the recently published “US National Biodefence Strategy” of October 2022, and warns, “Nation-states and terrorist groups have found value in pursuing biological weapons.”
• Reportedly, many advanced nations have the dual-use potential to move away from vaccine production to bioweapon production in a matter oBf idoawyes.apons, Pandemics, and

Future Wars

• The frequency of epidemics / pandemics seems to have increased. For instance, AIDS in 1981, SARS in 2002-03, Swine Flu in 2009-10, MERS Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) in 2015, and COVID-19 in 2019.
• A pandemic can have three significant impacts on the military; significant numbers ill, heavy engagement in civil aid duties, and dip in the defence budget.
• The use of bioweapons in different wars is as old as 200 BC but there is no evidence to suggest that these had any significant impact on the outcome of wars. These are not classic battlefield weapons, but they can slow down the tempo of operations.
• he next generation of bioweapons with designated targets may become a preferred tool of indirect wars to target the enemy’s economy and its population.