Seminar
Harnessing the Potential of the Young Population: A Path to Economic Security
May 17, 2023
The seminar explored how Pakistan can turn its large youth population into a driver of economic growth. Experts emphasized the need for education reform, skill development, and greater inclusion in the workforce to secure the country’s economic and national future.
About The Event
The world is witnessing unprecedented changes on multiple fronts. Recent technological advances in AI are shaping up to completely alter the workforce, means of production, and value creation. Developed countries are grappling with ageing and plummeting populations, while developing countries are dealing with issues arising from high population growth rates.Â
Pakistan is the world’s fifth-most populous country, yet its share in global GDP is only 0.4 percent in nominal terms and 0.9 percent in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). However, Pakistan ends up being ranked 177th in terms of GDP (PPP) per capita, leaving it lagging behind in global economic and productivity rankings.Â
Pakistan’s low standing in global rankings is the result of a multitude of economic challenges threatening its economic and national security. Pakistan’s National Security Policy (NSP) 2022 prioritised economic security as a crucial component of national security and outlined various policy options like building a globally competitive workforce and preparing for digital transformation.Â
In the current scenario, human capital development seems to be the most compelling intervention to place Pakistan on the path to economic security. Pakistan’s population is primarily comprised of youth, with over 64 percent of the population under the age of thirty and 29 percent falling into the age group of 15–29. The key challenge is that this core segment of the population lacks the adequate skill training and growth avenues to become productive members of society.
Similarly, almost 22.8 million children of school-going age are out of school in Pakistan. Additionally, labour force participation rates are low, with female participation in particular being minimal.Â
Pakistan can transform this vital segment of its population from a potential liability into a dividend by reimagining the education system and imparting globally competitive skills. By harnessing the potential of this burgeoning youth demographic, Pakistan can bolster its economic and national security.Â
Against this backdrop, a seminar on “Harnessing the Potential of the Young Population: A Path to Economic Security” was organised on May 17, 2023, at the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS), Lahore, to deliberate upon the various options for harnessing the potential of the young population in Pakistan.Â
The seminar was chaired by Air Marshal Asim Suleiman, President CASS Lahore. The master of ceremony was Ms. Nida Rehman Khattak, researcher at CASS. The introductory remarks were presented by Director of Economic Affairs, Dr Ghulam Mohey-ud-din.Â
The speakers included Former Finance Minister of Pakistan Dr Salman Shah, Chief Investment Officer Engro Corporation Mr Nadir Salar Qureshi, and CEO Tabadlab Mr Mosharraf Zaidi. The seminar was attended by the Deputy Chief of the Air Staff (Training) Air Marshal Zulfiqar Ahmad Qureshi, senior serving and retired PAF officers, academicians from different universities, and representatives from local think tanks.
Key Takeaways
Demographic Transition
- By 2100, the global population is projected to reach 10 billion with developed nations facing ageing populations and developing nations dealing with youth bulge.
- Despite being the 5th most-populous country, Pakistan’s standing on global economic and productivity ladders is quite low with only a 0.4 percent share in global GDP.
- With over 60% of Pakistan’s population under thirty, the demographic window of opportunity will remain open for 30-40 years and calls for action before it is lost.
Human Development Crisis
- Despite having the 6th largest workforce, Pakistan ranks 177th in terms of GDP per capita and 161st in the Human Development Index ranking.
- Pakistan’s Human Capital Index value of 0.41 is lower than the South Asian average of 0.48, and closer to Sub-Saharan Africa’s average of 0.40.
- Widespread stunting and malnutrition impair cognitive abilities and contribute to a broader human capital crisis.
Flawed Education System
- Nearly 23 million children are out of school.
- The current education and training ecosystem is unable to impart skills needed for a modern workforce.
- The input-driven monitoring system is unable to monitor and assess learning outcomes.
Skill Mismatch
- Pakistan’s largely illiterate and unskilled youth lack the competitiveness and productivity demanded by the global economy.
- The skill gap is broadening with every passing day as a result of technological breakthroughs, e.g., in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI).
- The skill mismatch hinders foreign companies and yields an unemployable, unproductive workforce.
Disconnect from GVCs
- Pakistan’s economy is inward-looking and lacks integration with global value chains (GVCs).
- Countries with large labour surpluses and low wages have a high potential for creating jobs though GVC integration.
- Long-term planning, governance reforms, and enhanced productivity are vital for human capital development and GVC integration.
Low Workforce Participation
- Pakistan’s labour force participation stands at approximately 55%, with 74% women unable to work outside their homes, leaving a large portion of the workforce unutilised.
- Failure to harness the youth’s potential can lead to social evils, unemployment, and involvement in criminal activities.
Policy Considerations
Micro-Level Focus for Economic Security
- Address micro-level challenges to resolve macro-level imbalances, which will safeguard long-term economic security.
Outward Looking Economy
- Transform Pakistan into an export-oriented economy by investing in education, skill development, and talent acquisition to cultivate a capable workforce that propels economic growth.
Competitiveness & Productivity
- Promote competitiveness and productivity through investments in talent, technology, and skill development to achieve diversification and competitive advantages.
Reimagine the Education System
- Transform Pakistan into an export-oriented economy by investing in education, skill development, and talent acquisition to cultivate a capable workforce that propels economic growth.
Address Stunting and Malnutrition
- Unlock the potential of the demographic divided by addressing stunting and malnutrition in children for cognitive and physical development.
Technological Innovation & Research
- Prioritise technological innovation by focusing on research, engineering, intellectual capital, and international collaboration.
Women’s Active Participation
- Promote women’s active participation in the economy to enhance their participation rate, which can have a US $27 billion impact on Pakistan’s GDP.
Certification for Overseas Placement
- Provide technical training to matriculation graduates for overseas placements, which could generate potential remittances of up to US $6.8 billion.
Re-skill University Graduates
- Train and enhance the IT and coding skills of university graduates to boost IT exports and reduce the current account deficit by US $9.5 billion.
Urban Clusters for Jobs
- Emphasise upon city clusters as growth engines for job creation, knowledge, and the service economy as cities drive economic growth and foster agglomeration economies.
Character Building & Civic Training
- Invest in the youth via education, skills, character building, and civic training.
Post Event Report
A comprehensive report capturing expert analyses, strategic insights, key recommendations, media coverage, and event highlights.
Guest Speakers
Dr Salman Shah
Former Finance Minister of Pakistan
Dr Salman Shah is the former Finance Minister of Pakistan. He has also served as an advisor to the Chief Minister of Punjab on Economic Affairs and Planning & Development. He is a Lahore-based economist and holds a PhD in finance and economics from Indiana University. He has 16 years of teaching experience at institutions such as the University of Michigan, Indiana University, the University of Toronto, and Lahore University of Management Sciences. During his time in charge of Pakistan’s finance ministry (2004–2008), Pakistan’s economy registered an average of 7 percent GDP growth per annum, among the highest in the world. Dr Shah has served in various positions, such as an economic consultant to different Pakistani governments and Chairman of the Privatisation Commission during the tenure of the caretaker government. He has served as a member of the Board of Directors at Pakistan International Airlines, Central Board of Directors at the State Bank of Pakistan.
Mr Nadir Salar Qureshi
Chief investment officer, Engro Corporation
Mr Nadir Salar Qureshi is the Chief Investment Officer of Engro Corporation. He joined Engro as Chief Strategy Officer in March 2017, and subsequently stewarded the group’s flagship listed enterprise, Engro Fertilizers, from 2019 to 2022 as CEO. He has completed his MBA from Harvard Business School and his bachelor’s and master’s degrees in nuclear engineering from MIT. Mr Qureshi brings with him expertise in multiple sectors across the GCC, Turkey, Australia, India, ASEAN, and the EU. He is also experienced in consulting, private equity, and finance. Mr Qureshi began his career with Engro Chemical Pakistan Limited as a business analyst and then moved on to organisations such as Hub Power Company, Bain & Company, Carrier Corporation, Abraaj Capital, and Makara Capital in Singapore. He is a director on the boards of Engro Energy Limited, Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited, and Chairman Engro Vopak Terminal Limited.
Mr Mosharraf Zaidi
Chief Executive Officer, Tabadlab
Mr Mosharraf Zaidi is the co-founder and CEO of Tabadlab, which is a think tank and policy advisory firm that helps leaders in the public, private, and non-profit sectors identify and solve problems related to economics, politics, and society. Mr Zaidi has over two decades of experience in analysing and shaping policy in complex political environments. He has spearheaded research, analysis, and delivery for a wide array of reform interventions in Pakistan and Afghanistan, as well as in the South Asia region. His work intersects with political economy, strategic communications, and change management. Mr Zaidi was Governance Adviser for the UK Government’s FCDO from 2004 through 2008, and improved public financial management in the Punjab province. He served as principal policy advisor at Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 2011 to 2013, where he worked in crisis diplomacy and established the Public Diplomacy division. From 2013 through 2018, he led the Alif Ailaan campaign for education in Pakistan. Mr Zaidi joined Albright Stonebridge as a senior adviser in March 2021.
Event Chair
Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd)
President, CASS Lahore
Event Coordinator
Dr Ghulam Mohey-ud-din
Director Economic Affairs, CASS Lahore
Master of The Ceremony
Nida Rehman Khattak
Researcher, CASS Lahore
The Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS) was established in July 2021 to inform policymakers and the public about issues related to aerospace and security from an independent, non-partisan and future-centric analytical lens.
@2025 – All Right Reserved with CASS Lahore.