Seminar
Future Security Outlook of South Asia: Trends and Challenges
July 11, 2024
The seminar explored the evolving security challenges in South Asia, focusing on extremism, militarism, and the impact of AI and cyber technologies. Experts discussed regional stability, opportunities for dialogue, and strategies for enhancing peace and cooperation.
About The Event
South Asia is grappling with both traditional and non-traditional security issues, influenced by the region’s historical conflicts, political volatility, and socio-economic disparities. The security calculus of the region is further complicated by the implications of the evolving global political landscape, technological advancement, and environmental challenges.
A major security challenge for South Asia is the rise in extremism and militarism, particularly under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who recently secured a third term in India. The country’s domestic and foreign policies have affected the regional security environment, posing serious challenges to the stability of neighbouring states, particularly Pakistan. Other persistent challenges include terrorism, economic instability, environmental degradation, and social unrest. The emergence of AI and cyber technologies further adds to the complexity of the non-traditional security equation.
The security dynamics of South Asia have profound implications not only for regional stability but also for global peace. Given that Pakistan occupies a central position in the region, the security challenges and opportunities in South Asia are of paramount importance for its national security. So, while there are challenges, opportunities for dialogue are there as well, and can help build trust and enhance regional cooperation.
In light of these challenges and opportunities, the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS), Lahore organised a seminar titled, “Future Security Outlook of South Asia: Trends and Challenges”. The seminar generated actionable insights and strategic recommendations that could help shape a secure and peaceful future for the region and beyond.
Key Takeaways
- India-Pakistan Conflict Dynamics
The future security landscape of South Asia is primarily driven by Pakistan-India relations, which have become more challenging post-August 2019. India now views Kashmir purely as a domestic issue and follows a no-contact policy with Pakistan.
- Global Shift and Indian Ambitions
The transitioning global order, marked by growing unilateralism, increased nationalism, and US-China competition, has significant consequences for South Asian security architecture, given India’s quest to find a new role in this structure.
- Saffronisation of Indian Strategic Culture
India’s strategic culture is being increasingly influenced by Hindutva ideology, leading to a more antagonistic shift in its strategic institutions which affects its approach to regional and global security.
- Marginalisation and Militarisation
The political marginalisation of minorities particularly Muslims and the militarisation of society in India contribute to an aggressive regional stance.
- Hindutva and Global Extremism
The Hindutva proponents in India are likely to align with global far-right extremist groups, which could result in a rise of Islamophobia worldwide.
- Neglect of Maritime Strategy
While India is focused on becoming a dominant maritime power, Pakistan’s neglect in this area hampers its ability to influence regional security dynamics and limits its strategic reach.
- Pakistan’s Afghan Policy
Pakistan’s policy towards Afghanistan is characterised by paradoxes and challenges, particularly those posed by the Taliban regime, including terrorism and an unsettled border.
- Positive Signs for Peace
There are positive signs in Pakistan-India relations, such as the LOC ceasefire agreement and ongoing indirect trade between the two countries. These developments could serve as potential starting points for further engagement and conflict resolution.
Policy Considerations
- Enhance Strategic Autonomy
To bolster strategic autonomy and prevent excessive reliance on any single power, Pakistan should endeavour to maintain balanced relations with major powers, particularly the United States and China.
- Invest in Maritime Capabilities
Pakistan should prioritise its maritime strategy and invest in naval capabilities to secure its interests in the Indian Ocean. This will enhance national security and regional stability, helping to mitigate the effects of regional isolation by India.
- Inclusive Planning for Geoeconomics
It is essential to incorporate diverse perspectives in strategic policymaking to successfully achieve the National Security Policy’s objective of shifting from geostrategy to geoeconomics, thereby fostering economic and social development.
- Integrate Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan
Pakistan should pursue the immediate provisional integration of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) into its federal structure, solidifying administrative control and providing residents with clearer legal and constitutional rights.
- Advance towards a Technology-Driven Society
The government should implement a comprehensive strategy to prioritise digitalisation to foster a technology-driven education system, and modernise key industries through incentives for high-tech adoption and R&D support to navigate the future security challenges.
- Invest in Peace Discourse
There is a need for focused research and dialogue on peace-building strategies in South Asia to challenge the narrative that conflict is inevitable and promote the idea that long-lasting peace is achievable.
- Re-evaluate Foreign Policy
Pakistan should re-evaluate its South Asia policy, bolster civilisational ties with Central Asia, normalise relations with Afghanistan, and effectively counter Indian efforts to isolate Pakistan and to create new strategic and economic opportunities.
- Expand Nuclear Deterrence
Enhancing Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities and responding decisively to Indian aggressions are crucial for maintaining strategic balance and safeguarding national security.
Post Event Report
A comprehensive report capturing expert analyses, strategic insights, key recommendations, media coverage, and event highlights.
Guest Speakers
Ambassador Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhary (Retd)
Former Foreign Secretary
Ambassador Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry has served as a member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan for 37 years, rising to the rank of the Foreign Secretary of Pakistan for over three years from December 2013 to March 2017. Mr. Chaudhry’s last diplomatic assignment was as Ambassador of Pakistan to the United States of America.
He also served as Ambassador of Pakistan to the Netherlands, Foreign Office Spokesman, and deputy permanent representative of Pakistan to the United Nations in New York. As Director General for relations with South Asia, he remained closely associated with India-Pakistan peace process. After his retirement from the Foreign Service, Ambassador Chaudhry served as the Director General of Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad for over four years. He has authored two books and numerous research articles.
His recent book is a memoir ‘Diplomatic Footprints’ that discusses the intricacies of foreign policy making in Pakistan. Ambassador Chaudhry holds Masters in International Relations from Tufts University, Massachusetts, and a First Class First Bachelor of Science from Punjab University, Lahore.
Dr Khuram Iqbal
Associate Professor, National Defence University, Pakistan
Associate Professor Khuram Iqbal is a faculty member at National Defence University, Pakistan. He also serves as the Editor of the Journal of Contemporary Studies. He is a member of the Editorial Board of the Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, published by Taylor and Francis. His recent achievements include completing his third post-doctorate at the Department of Security Studies and Criminology, Macquarie University, Australia, where he specialized in non-kinetic counterterrorism approaches.
Dr Iqbal previously served as the head of the Department of International Relations at NDU. Prior to this, Dr Iqbal was affiliated with the Centre for Transnational Crimes Prevention, Australia, and the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, Singapore. He also remained associated with the University of Maryland (United States) and the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS).
Dr Iqbal has lent his expertise as a consultant on Countering Violent Extremism to esteemed national and international organisations, including UNESCO, HSF, NACTA, and the US Department of Justice. He is ranked among the most globally cited scholars of Security Studies from Pakistan.
Dr Farhan Siddiqui
Associate Professor, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad
Dr Farhan Hanif Siddiqi is an accomplished Associate Professor at the School of Politics and International Relations at Quaid-i Azam University in Islamabad. With a diverse range of research interests, his expertise spans across ethnic politics, federalism, conflict analysis and resolution, societal security, and crisis management. In 2023, Dr. Siddiqi co-authored a significant book titled “Introducing International Relations: Concepts, Theories, and Practices,” which was published by the prestigious Oxford University Press. This publication showcases his in-depth knowledge and understanding of international relations concepts and theories. Furthermore, Dr. Siddiqi is also recognised for his solo work, particularly his book “The Politics of Ethnicity in Pakistan: The Baloch, Sindhi and Mohajir Ethnic Movements,” published by Routledge in 2012. This publication delves into the intricate dynamics of ethnic movements in Pakistan, shedding light on the complexities of Baloch, Sindhi, and Mohajir ethnicities within the country. With a strong academic background and a wealth of experience in the field of politics and international relations, Dr. Farhan Hanif Siddiqi stands out as a prominent figure in academia, contributing significantly to the understanding of ethnic politics, conflict resolution, and societal security in Pakistan and beyond.
Event Chair
Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd)
President CASS, Lahore
Event Coordinator
Ameer Abdullah Khan
Senior Researcher, CASS Lahore
Master of The Ceremony
Mehroo Waqas
Researcher, CASS Lahore
The Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS) was established in July 2021 to inform policymakers and the public about issues related to aerospace and security from an independent, non-partisan and future-centric analytical lens.
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