Confronting Terrorism: Strategies for Pakistan in 2024

• Global Terrorism Landscape

Despite the widespread belief in a decline in global terrorism and the arrival of a peaceful era, there are still 27 active conflicts using terrorism. These conflicts mainly involve civil wars, territorial disputes, and transnational crimes. Additionally, around 150 armed conflicts each year involve terrorism, used by both state and non-state actors.

• Terrorism in Pakistan

The Soviet invasion and subsequent US intervention in Afghanistan brought refugees, arms, drugs, and militant ideologies to Pakistan, making the Pak-Afghan borderlands nearly ungovernable and normalising terrorism. Currently, Pakistan faces four main streams of terrorism: anti-CPEC attacks, separatist terrorism, ethno-sectarian clashes, and issue-centric movements.

• Surging Militancy

Since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, terrorist attacks in Pakistan have sharply increased.

• Dynamics of Extremist Groups

The TTP has evolved from an ethno-sectarian and gender-biased group into a populist political movement with a broader reach. Its agenda includes running a separatist movement and acting as a proxy for Afghanistan’s Taliban regime.

• Impact of Terrorism on Pakistan

Over the past 16 years, Pakistan has suffered significant financial losses due to terrorism, amounting to approximately $123 billion, and a decline in investor confidence. About 80,000 lives have been lost, including 20,000 security personnel.

• Causes of Terrorism

Terrorism is driven by psychological, ideological, and strategic factors, often rooted in personal feelings of victimhood, hatred towards the state and society, and a sense of disempowerment and helplessness. Additionally, extremism is fueled by a lack of awareness and poor socio-economic services, such as inadequate education, healthcare, and civic amenities.

• Analytical Gaps

Proper theorisation of violence is needed to accurately explore the root causes of terrorism. Pakistani scholars, in particular, have yet to frame terrorism from theoretical and political perspectives effectively. This gap hinders the development of contextually accurate research questions and the scholarly research for viable solutions.

• Flaws in Addressing Terrorism

Despite a high number of registered terrorism-related cases, the conviction ratio is abysmally low, at less than 2 percent. This is due to patchy investigations, lacklustre evidence collection, low-quality forensic assessments, half-hearted prosecution efforts, and inadequate protection for judges and witnesses. Moreover, our counter-terrorism strategies lack political and public ownership.

• Governance and Rule of Law

The lack of transparency, accountability, and public trust has led to inadequate governance, erosion of the rule of law, and general disorder, all of which collectively act as catalysts for terrorism.

• Inconsistent State Responses

The state’s inconsistent and often solely kinetic responses to terrorism have yielded only limited, short-lived, and reversible results. Frequent extrajudicial killings and selective policing have eroded public trust in law enforcement agencies.

• Tactical Success versus Strategic Failure

Due to tactical successes like Zarb-e-Azb, the peak of terrorism in Pakistan has passed, but militancy remains a dangerous and persistent issue. Major military operations, while tactically successful, posed strategic dilemmas by pushing militants across our borders, where they became tools for neighbouring countries.