Seminar
Climate Resilience and Strategic Preparedness: Safeguarding Pakistan’s Security Interests
March 7, 2024
The seminar explored the links between climate change and national security. Experts highlighted challenges, policy gaps, and the urgent need for climate-smart governance, resilience, and international cooperation.
About The Event
Climate change is wreaking havoc across the globe. Riverine and flash floods, rising sea levels, extreme temperatures, unpredictable weather patterns, alterations in precipitation, persistent droughts, forest fires, glacial retreats, and biodiversity loss are among the most common manifestations of this phenomenon. These natural disasters contribute to increased displacements, migrations, and heightened competition for decreasing ecological resources. They are also exacerbating the vulnerabilities of states with weak economic foundations, political instability, ethno-religious divisions, and limited adaptive capacities. While it was initially considered a matter of low politics, climate change has now transitioned into a serious security concern, given that it can disrupt human civilisation, instigate conflicts, and escalate intra-state violence.
Anthropogenic factors have been attributed as the root cause of these natural disasters. However, what makes the matter more concerning is the fact that states with little historical contribution to greenhouse gas emissions face the risk of being the most affected. Pakistan, with its extensive geographical expanse featuring high-altitude mountain peaks and fertile plains, faces serious consequences of climate change. It has been identified as among the states most vulnerable to climate change impacts by various global organisations like the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the German Watch. The Toronto School, led by Thomas Homer Dixon, also includes it in six cases where climate-induced resource scarcity may lead to violent intrastate conflicts. Furthermore, the country’s agrarian foundation, dependence on a single shared river basin with India, and the presence of nuclear weapons also add to the complexity of the situation.
Recognising the importance of the matter, the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS) in Lahore held a seminar titled “Climate Resilience & Strategic Preparedness: Safeguarding Pakistan’s Security Interests”. The seminar brought together experts from policy, governance, and legal domains for a comprehensive analysis and provided viable recommendations for policymakers.
Key Takeaways
- Climate Change and National Security
Climate change is a national security concern and a threat multiplier which can contribute to civil unrest, political instability, economic productivity loss, displacement, and migration threatening the security of Pakistan, so limiting the global temperature rise below 1 degree Celsius is our critical national security interest.
- Trans-boundary Climate Disasters
Floods, droughts, heat waves, sea water incursion and cyclones are major climate induced challenges of trans-boundary nature which can trigger the drivers of conflicts in Pakistan thus necessitating international cooperation and climate diplomacy mainly with Afghanistan and India.
- International Agreements
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Climate Agreement are crucial instruments for addressing climate challenge but need significant restructuring to ensure climate justice for the developing nations that have minimum contribution in greenhouse gases emissions.
- Climate Change and Governance
Effects of climate induced disasters are amplified due to the lack of climate-resilient governance structures pertaining to urban planning, budgetary allocations, investment strategies,
construction codes, centralised planning mechanisms, etc.
- Gender and Climate Change
Climate change poses a different and disproportional threat to both genders but women are particularly more vulnerable to adverse effects of climate change due to economic and cultural aspects.
- Adaptation and Mitigation
Making Pakistan climate resilient through greenhouse gases emissions mitigation and implementing adaptation measures tailored to its unique socio-political and ecological needs is the only way forward to a secure and sustainable future.
Policy Considerations
- Establish Dedicate Institute
The federal government through the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination should create a dedicated authority to oversee disaster preparedness and resilience efforts, enhancing coordination and response mechanisms.
- Climate Diplomacy
The Ministry of Climate Change and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should take a coordinated approach to increase international climate financing and green technology transfers through a robust climate diplomacy campaign, based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities.
- Climate Smart Agriculture
The department of agriculture and other stakeholder institutions should develop adaptive strategies for climate smart cropping patterns and other agriculture practices to ensure food security and agricultural sustainability amid changing weather patterns, shrinking water availability and climate-induced disasters.
- Mainstream Climate in Development
The government needs to devise strategies for integrating climate risk assessments into development planning for various sectors such as agriculture, water management, urban planning, and construction. There is a need to incorporate climate-smart strategies and monitoring mechanisms into all stages of project development.
- Collaborate for Climate Resilience
A well-coordinated, whole-of-the-government approach is required for developing efficient climate resilience by taking on board all levels and agencies of government as well as private sector and civil society with fully funded local governments at the forefront.
- Women Inclusive Decision Making
Effective adaptation and mitigation strategies and sustainable development require the inclusion of women in decision making processes at all levels for which disaster management authorities and other relevant departments should devise framework for gender-inclusive policies and mechanisms.
- Climate Awareness
Climate action and social change must hinge upon awareness and data-driven scientific knowledge for which education departments and other stakeholders should take appropriate measure to incorporate knowledge about climate change into curriculum supplemented by awareness campaigns initiated with the help of civil society.
Post Event Report
A comprehensive report capturing expert analyses, strategic insights, key recommendations, media coverage, and event highlights.
Guest Speakers
Mr Ali Tauqeer Sheikh
Member, Pakistan Climate Change Council
Mr Ali Tauqeer Sheikh is a climate change specialist, focusing on low-carbon and resilient development, international climate finance, and just transition for an equitable world. Currently he is serving as the Member OF Climate Change Council and as Member from Pakistan to the Loss and Damage fund Board. He is also a consultant with the World Bank and advisor to Planning Commission of Pakistan and Ministry of Climate Change Pakistan. He has engaged in the design, development and delivery of several regional, national, and sub-national level projects, programs, and portfolios. Deeply committed to transformational change, he has managed diverse multidisciplinary and multi-sectoral teams comprised of climate scientists, policy planners, think-tanks, and activist groups.
Mr Ahmad Rafay Alam
Environmental Lawyer & Activist
Ahmad Rafay Alam is a Pakistani environmental lawyer and activist and co-founder of Saleem, Alam & Co., a firm that specialises in the energy, water, natural resources, and urban infrastructure sectors. As one of Pakistan’s leading environment lawyers, Mr Alam regularly advises the federal and provincial governments, the World Bank, ADB, IFC and a number of INGOs on issues of policy and strategy in these sectors, and he provides corporate clients strategic sustainability insights.
Mr Alam has served as Chairman of the Board of two public sector utilities: the Lahore Electric Supply Company and the Lahore Waste Management Company. As founding Vice-President of the Urban Unit he over saw the growth of the Punjab’s only public sector urban think-tank. He also serves as a Member of the Pakistan Climate Change Council, the Punjab Environment Protection Council, the Hisaar Foundation’s Think Tank on the Rational Use of Water, and as Advisor to Air Quality Asia.
Ms Sara Hayat
Climate Change Expert
Ms Sara Hayat is an environmental lawyer, climate change specialist, and climate change, sustainability, and resilience consultant. She specialises in climate change law and policy and has worked on multiple aspects of climate change in Pakistan, including advising the Government on preparing Pakistan’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2021. She is an internationally renowned climate advocate. Her major consultancy endeavours include working with The World Bank as a climate change adaptation specialist for the Sindh Climate Resilience Project, the United States Institute of Peace suggesting potential collaboration strategies between the US and Pakistan in combating climate change, UNDP advising the Government of Pakistan on revising Pakistan’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for submission to the UNFCCC under the Paris Agreement, Amnesty International focusing on communicating Climate Change & Smog in Pakistan and exploring the nexus between Climate Change & Human Rights in Pakistan, and Oxfam International, studying Climate Change-induced migration in Sindh, Pakistan.
Event Chair
Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd)
President CASS, Lahore
Event Coordinator
Ameer Abdullah Khan
Senior Researcher, CASS Lahore
Master of The Ceremony
Maheera Munir
Researcher, CASS Lahore
The Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS) was established in July 2021 to inform policymakers and the public about issues related to aerospace and security from an independent, non-partisan and future-centric analytical lens.
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