A Paradigm Shift in US National Security Strategy: Implications for South Asia and the Middle East

The 2025 US National Security Strategy (NSS) reflects a major ideological shift in US foreign policy under the present Trump administration, anchored in the concept of “America First.” Signalling a return to pragmatic realism, the NSS reasserts the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, including through an expanded military presence. The Strategy prioritises core US interests such as border security, supply chain stability, and the maintenance of technological and defence superiority.

Notably, the NSS appears to move away from efforts to shape the global order or actively promote Western values. Instead, it emphasises commercial diplomacy alongside policies of burden-sharing and burden-shifting. It also reflects a significant recalibration away from the sharp US focus on the Indo-Pacific that characterised the early 2020s.

China is framed primarily as an economic and strategic competitor rather than an ideological adversary. In managing relations with Beijing, the Strategy prioritises “de-risking” over “decoupling,” signalling a preference for selective engagement rather than comprehensive economic separation.

The long-standing strategic partnership between the US and India, developed over two decades, is likely to encounter headwinds under this framework. The focus is expected to shift towards enhancing commercial ties with India. Consequently, the relationship may become more transactional, with a probable dilution of defence cooperation. While India will remain an important partner, it is likely to receive less strategic attention than under previous US administrations.

Middle Eastern states are likely to view this strategy with a degree of unease and a sense of reduced priority. Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, may therefore deepen their hedging strategies. This evolving environment presents opportunities for Pakistan to leverage its role as a security provider while expanding its footprint as an economic and technology partner.

With an all-weather strategic partnership with China and improving relations with the United States, the emerging geopolitical dynamics point towards a period of enhanced national strength and growing regional relevance for Pakistan.

The guest lecture titled “A Paradigm Shift in US National Security Strategy: Implications for South Asia and the Middle East”, held on January 22, 2026, closely examined the fundamental shifts in the US foreign policy resulting from the 2025 NSS and implications for different regions and the likely options for Pakistan.