How Civil War Starts

“How Civil War Starts,” by Barbara F. Walters, is a sobering wake-up call for Americans who value democracy. In her book, Walter argues that the US is no longer the oldest continuous democracy in the world and is instead on the cusp of transitioning into an anocracy, a state that combines elements of democracy and authoritarianism. According to Walter, the previous president Trump and his allies sought to establish and maintain an authoritarian state through a coup, and their actions are mostly to blame for this shift.
Barbara F. Walter is a political scientist from the United States who specialises in domestic terrorism and civil wars. Her research in this book is backed up by a plethora of historical and global instances as well as her extensive experience. She presented a convincing case that the US is at risk of civil war. According to her, the best analogy for initiating civil war is not opposing armies clashing on the battlefield, but rather the ruins of the federal building in Oklahoma City and the insurgency that occurred on January 6, 2021, at the US Capitol building.
Walter provides a nuanced understanding of the origins and dynamics of civil wars backed by extensive research and compelling case studies. She dissects the underlying factors like ethnic factionalism, economic inequality, and political polarization that fuel the outbreak of these conflicts. One of the most striking features of this book is how Walter draws on historical examples from around the world to illustrate her points. From Tudjman’s consolidation of Croatians into an ethnic faction to Modi’s promotion of India, primarily for Hindus, Walter shows how ethnic entrepreneurs have used grievance politics to gain power.
The author recounts her experience of studying civil wars since 1990 when she initially found a lack of data that focused on identifying common elements across different countries and periods. Over the years, she has seen a significant expansion in the data on civil wars and has noticed that warning signs of instability are the same in the United States. Civil wars today are primarily waged by ethnic and religious groups, guerrilla soldiers, and militias, who often target civilians. Extremist groups can be imperceptible, often organising slowly and clandestinely over several years. Walter emphasises the possibility of civil conflict while highlighting the terrible realities of democratisation. She contends that quick regime transition frequently causes instability and that civil conflicts are more likely to break out within the first two years of reform efforts. She also emphasises the value of incremental transformation in lowering citizens’ uncertainty and facilitating the transition for current elites. Mexico’s democratic transition took over 20 years, culminating in the first opposition party winning a presidential election in over seven decades.
In this book, she investigates the intricate link between authority and the process of power shift in a democracy. The book demonstrates how democratic changes may result in new winners and losers, creating friction that can lead to violent upheavals. Autocracy arises when elected officials reject democratic standards such as a free press, checks and balances, and fair competition. This book emphasises the risks of autocracy and the significance of defending democratic institutions.
Walter assesses the extent of factionalism in society using a five-point scale, with completely competitive systems at one end and entirely repressed regimes at the other. Countries at the centre of this scale are frequently at risk of civil war as a result of identity-based politics. Walter explains how factionalism may be a forerunner to conflict and gives insights into how countries might evolve towards more stable, democratic regimes via case studies and comprehensive analysis.
Walter connects the idea of factionalism with the exploitation of hope in public. She is of the view that hopes make the present more bearable and creates incentives for even the most marginalised individuals to work within a system rather than resort to violence. She focuses on the importance of hope in preventing or triggering civil wars. Many factions protest in hopes of obtaining their rights; however, the failure of protests eliminates hope and incentivizes violence. When citizens see that their belief in the system has been misplaced, the militant members of an unhappy group mobilise armed resistance. Protests are a last-ditch effort to fix the system before the extremists take over.
Walter points out that another dangerous element of popular culture is the current model of social media. It cares little about the veracity of the information it disseminates as long as it is engaging. This, combined with the fact that big technology companies now act as gatekeepers for news and information, is a recipe for disasters. She explores the precarious connections between social media and autocratic politicians. Walter argues that social media has become a vehicle for outsiders with autocratic impulses to ride a popular wave of power support.
This book offers several examples of this phenomenon, including Erdogan in Turkey, Modi in India, and Rajoy in Spain. These candidates were all social media-savvy — dark horses who leveraged the unregulated environment of social media to disseminate information and propaganda across multiple platforms, reaching different audiences on YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook. Walter explains how social media has allowed any candidate and any party — no matter how fringe —to circumvent traditional gatekeepers such as party leaders and major networks and political groups.
She provides an overview of how international observers deemed the 2016 election free but not entirely fair, and that U.S. intelligence agencies detailed a systematic online campaign by Russian agents to interfere with the election. Walter explores the delicate balance between democracy and civil war in the United States, arguing that America has been fortunate in one sense that its first modern autocratic president was not particularly intelligent nor politically experienced.
She does point out that America already has numerous risk factors for civil strife, such as factionalism, democratic deterioration, and ubiquitous gun culture. The greatest threat comes from the terror of a once-dominant group known as “sons of the soil,” who are so accustomed to their power and authority that they are prepared to use violence to protect it, and who are now facing the potential of losing their privileged status.
The book “How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them” by Barbara F. Walter explores how civil wars begin. This book offers a thorough explanation of the causes of civil wars and is a useful tool for comprehending the risks of autocratisation and the necessity of preserving democratic institutions. For anyone interested in the condition of democracy today and the difficulties it faces in the twenty-first century, it comes highly recommended.