The Politics of Bloodshed

Just two days before the Pahalgam attack, while scrolling randomly on Instagram, I came across a reel featuring the renowned Indian poet Rahat Indhori reciting a couplet from one of his famous poems, “Sarhad par bahut tanav hai kya? Pata karo kahin chunav hai kya?” [Is there a tension at the border? Find out if there are elections taking place somewhere?] The couplet, which is loaded with biting satire, is a stark reminder of India’s long and troubling history of alleged false flag operations that almost always conveniently coincide with political milestones in the country. While these operations might have proven beneficial for various political parties in India– specifically for the BJP, in the context of domestic politics, they have increasingly tarnished the country’s standing in the international political arena. The most recent episode of this pattern seems to have unfolded recently in Pahalgam in the Illegally Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK).

On 22nd April, gunmen killed at least 26 people in the scenic valley of Pahalgam. The Indian government took only minutes to blame the attack on Pakistan. Pakistan, on its part, as a responsible state, not only condemned the attack but also offered a “neutral” investigation into the incident and showed willingness to cooperate. The Indian government dismissed the offer and fanned the war hysteria. Consequently, weeks later, it launched an unprovoked military offensive dubbed “Operation Sindoor” against Pakistan. The operation, which resulted in the deaths of innocent civilians, was successfully thwarted by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), inflicting heavy losses on the aggressors.

There are several compelling reasons to characterise the Pahalgam attack as a false flag operation. The first and most immediate red flag is the Indian government’s outright rejection of Pakistan’s offer for a neutral and transparent investigation. If New Delhi genuinely believed that Pakistan was behind the attack, one would expect it to welcome international scrutiny to substantiate its claims and rally global support. Its rejection of Pakistan’s offer defies logical explanation, until and unless New Delhi had prior reasons to avoid scrutiny, or perhaps a prior knowledge of who the actual perpetrators were.

Speaking of the perpetrators, it is also important to note that nearly a month has passed since the attack; yet the Indian authorities have still not apprehend the alleged perpetrators. In a state that is regarded as the most militarised region on earth, the failure of the Indian authorities to apprehend raises serious doubts about the nature of the incident.

These anomalies make sense when examined in parallel with India’s history of staging false flag operations, especially when election cycles are around, as Rahat Indori also alluded to. Take the example of the attack on the Indian Army camp in the Uri sector on September 18, 2016, which coincided with the elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur, Goa, and Indian Punjab. The other glaring example in this regard is the 2019 Pulwama attack, which occurred just months before India’s general elections. In both cases the attacks were weaponised by the BJP to fuel nationalist sentiments and to gain popular support. This time, too, the script appears eerily familiar.

The Pahalgam incident happened when India was on the cusp of crucial electoral contests. For instance, Bihar is set to hold state elections in October–November 2025. Moreover, several other politically significant states such as Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal are scheduled for polls in 2026. The BJP has already made the attack central to its election campaign in the concerned states. For instance, on 25 April 2025, addressing a public rally in Madhubani in Bihar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated: “Today, from the soil of Bihar, I say to the whole world that India will identify, track, and punish every terrorist and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the Earth.”

While these attacks may have paid dividends for the BJP in domestic politics, they have severely damaged India’s global standing. The recurring pattern of the coincidence of these incidents with elections has led many nations to question their authenticity, especially given the fact that India has failed to provide any substantial evidence to the world. The Pahalgam incident has further reinforced this skepticism on the part of the international community, which is evident from the fact that no major country has endorsed India’s narrative except Israel, and given Israel’s standing in the international community due to the ongoing Gaza war, its support for India is seen as another drawback.

Moreover, India’s military misadventures following these attacks, most importantly the recent botched Operation Sindoor, have also backfired. Pakistan’s robust defense, including the downing of six Indian aircraft and a UAV in a single night, has raised doubts in Western capitals and particularly in Washington about India’s capacity to be a “net security provider” vis-a-vis China in the region. Instead, India increasingly appears to be a “net security receiver”, by relying on US intervention for a ceasefire that brought the hostilities between the two countries to a halt.

In conclusion, these false flag operations may serve short-term electoral gains for the BJP, but they are proving costly for the country in the long run. As global scepticism grows regarding these operations and military gambles repeatedly backfire, New Delhi risks trading its image as a rising power for that of a reckless provocateur.