Next Generation Air Warfare: Transforming South Asian Air Forces

A seminar titled, ‘Next Generation Air Warfare: Transforming South Asian Air Forces’ was organised by the CASS Lahore, on 27 June 2024. The seminar commenced with a keynote address by Air Cdre Khalid Banuri (Retd), Senior Advisor Project Phoenix, PAF. It was followed by insightful presentations delivered by two eminent scholars, Dr Ghulam Mujaddid, Assistant Professor, National Defence University (NDU) and Dr Adil Sultan, Dean Faculty of Aerospace and Strategic Studies (FASS), Air University (AU). An extensive Q&A session and concluding remarks by Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd), President, CASS Lahore, rounded up the seminar.

 

Ms Nidaa Shahid opened the seminar by invoking Giulio Douhet’s timeless insight on the necessity of anticipating changes in warfare rather than reacting to them. She emphasised that contemporary global dynamics, driven by technological advancements and geopolitical shifts, are reshaping the nature of conflict. Highlighting technological innovations such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and autonomous systems, Ms Shahid stressed their transformative impact on military doctrines and strategies.

 

Against the backdrop of evolving interstate competition and the diminishing barriers to the use of force, she emphasised the increasing importance of air power, particularly in controlling airspace. Referencing the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a pertinent example, she illustrated the critical role of emerging technologies like UAVs and cyber warfare in modern air warfare. Ms Shahid emphasised PAFs imperative to stay vigilant and adaptive in navigating these complexities and integrating cutting-edge military technologies.

 

Air Cdre Khalid Banuri (Retd) delivered a comprehensive keynote address on the evolution of air warfare and the strategic implications of emerging technologies. Beginning with fictional scenarios that vividly depicted potential future conflicts, he set the stage for discussions on strategic foresight and preparedness highlighting the critical role of technological advancements, particularly in domains such as AI, robotics, and UAVs, which are reshaping global power dynamics.

 

Central to Air Cdre Banuri’s address was the theme of technological competition between major global players, notably US and China. He detailed the substantial financial investments required to maintain and advance technological supremacy, illustrating how funding trends have shifted over the decades. This included a comparison of historical dominance of US Research and Development (R&D) to China’s rapid catch-up, signalling a shift in global innovation centres. Pakistan’s comparatively modest investment in AI and related fields was starkly contrasted, highlighting both the challenges and imperatives for nations seeking to enhance their military capabilities in an increasingly digital and interconnected world.

 

Beyond military applications, Air Cdre Banuri explored the dual-use potential of emerging technologies, emphasising their broader impact on civilian sectors. He illustrated how innovations initially developed for military purposes, such as GPS and integrated circuits, have found widespread civilian applications, underlining the broader societal implications of military R&D.

 

The keynote speaker also addressed strategic shifts in military doctrine and operational concepts, focusing on the evolution from traditional air power to intelligentised warfare. This evolution encompasses advancements in sensors, precision weapons, and information warfare capabilities, all critical in achieving operational superiority. Air Cdre Banuri highlighted the need for comprehensive governance frameworks to manage the ethical and strategic implications of these technologies effectively.

 

In conclusion, Air Cdre Khalid Banuri invoked Francis Fukuyama’s critique of the “End of History” thesis, suggesting that while technological advancements bring significant opportunities, they also introduce new complexities and challenges. The speaker urged proactive approaches in policy-making and international cooperation to navigate these changes responsibly, ensuring that emerging technologies contribute positively to global security and stability in the decades ahead.

 

The first speaker of the seminar, Dr Ghulam Mujaddid provided a comprehensive analysis of the on-going Russia-Ukraine conflict, highlighting its evolution into a multifaceted war with profound implications for global security. The conflict, which began in February 2022, has showcased a complex interplay of military strategies, advanced technologies, and geopolitical manoeuvres.

 

Dr Mujaddid outlined the geopolitical tensions underlying the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rooted in historical imperatives and strategic calculations. Russia’s objectives, including the protection of Donbas and countering NATO influence in the region, underscore the broader strategic stakes involved. The conflict has escalated into a protracted war, demonstrating Russia’s resolve to secure its perceived strategic interests and maintain influence in Eastern Europe.

 

Central to Dr Mujaddid’s analysis were insights into the military tactics employed by both Russia and Ukraine, focusing particularly on aerial engagements and drone warfare dynamics. Russia’s use of advanced aircraft like the Su-34 bombers and Su-35S fighters, coupled with hypersonic missiles and precision-guided munitions, has underscored its aerial superiority strategies. The integration of drones, including combat drones like the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 and Russian Orlan-10, has reshaped battlefield dynamics, emphasising their critical role in reconnaissance and precision strikes.

 

The deployment of advanced weaponry such as hypersonic missiles (e.g., Zircon), cruise missiles (e.g., Kalibr), and AI-enabled cyber operations highlights Russia’s technological prowess and strategic agility. These technologies have not only enhanced Russia’s military capabilities but also introduced new challenges in terms of cyber warfare and information operations. Dr Mujaddid emphasised the criticality of AI in military applications, advocating for its integration into the PAF to enhance operational effectiveness and resilience in modern warfare scenarios.

 

Drawing lessons from the conflict, Dr Mujaddid highlighted the importance of technological integration, resilience in hybrid warfare contexts, and public support in sustaining military engagements. He stressed the significance of dispersing military assets for survivability and maintaining strategic linkages with critical satellite navigation systems like the Chinese BeiDou for operational success. Russia-Ukraine conflict serves as a pivotal case study for understanding contemporary warfare dynamics and geopolitical strategies in an era defined by rapid technological advancements.

 

Dr Mujaddid’s analysis underscored the imperative for nations, including Pakistan, to adapt to the changing landscape of warfare through technological innovation, strategic foresight, and international cooperation to mitigate emerging threats effectively.

 

In his address on leveraging emerging technologies for air force modernisation, Dr Adil Sultan provided a comprehensive analysis of the evolving landscape of air power and its implications for PAF. He began by highlighting historical examples such as the Gulf War and the US-led Global War on Terror, where advancements in precision weapons and aerial platforms reshaped military strategies, demonstrating the ability to achieve strategic objectives swiftly and decisively. Dr Sultan emphasised the transformative impact of technologies like AI, stealth, cyber, and quantum, which are redefining military operations across multi-domain environments.

 

He underscored the strategic implications of integrating these technologies into conventional warfare, particularly the development of Strategic Non-Nuclear Weapons (SNNWs) that could potentially undermine traditional military advantages and enhance the deterrent capabilities of smaller powers against larger adversaries. Dr Sultan also addressed the challenges arising from the involvement of private entities in military technology development, noting both the accelerated innovation and the complexities in establishing global norms to regulate their use.

 

Space emerged as a critical frontier, with Dr Sultan discussing India’s advanced space programme and partnerships, highlighting its implications for Pakistan’s national security and the imperative for PAF to bolster its space capabilities. He emphasised the role of AI in transforming air warfare, particularly in the development of Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) and autonomous drones. These AI-driven technologies, he argued, could provide cost-effective solutions to enhance PAF’s operational effectiveness in future conflicts.

 

Dr Sultan offered strategic recommendations for PAF’s modernisation efforts, including prioritising critical security requirements amidst resource constraints, enhancing space capabilities, and adopting AI-assisted unmanned aircraft. He stressed the importance of adapting training programmes to incorporate multi-domain warfare skills and technological proficiency. Moreover, he advocated for closer collaboration with think tanks to facilitate futuristic studies and policy inputs that could further enhance PAF’s strategic planning and innovation capabilities.

 

In the end, Dr Sultan reiterated the critical importance of air power in achieving strategic objectives swiftly and effectively. His insights provided a strategic framework for PAF to navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by emerging technologies, ensuring readiness to address contemporary threats while maintaining a credible deterrent against external aggression.

 

A comprehensive question and answer session provided insights into the rapid advancements in emerging technologies and evolving regional security dynamics. The participants stressed the transformative impact of private sector involvement in defence technology development, contrasting Pakistan’s current position with global trends where private entities drive innovation. Emphasising the need for public-private partnerships, the speakers highlighted potential cost reductions and enhanced capabilities through collaborative ventures.

 

The discussion also delved into Pakistan’s economic constraints and the imperative to increase investment in critical defence technologies amidst disparities with regional counterparts like India. The proposed strategies included leveraging Pakistan’s economic potential and fostering indigenous technological capabilities to overcome financial limitations and ensure long-term defence preparedness.

 

Regarding strategic stability and the future of warfare, insights were shared on the implications of AI integration in military operations and differing approaches to autonomous systems (‘human in the loop’ vs ‘human on the loop’). Participants also analysed their impact on South Asian security paradigms, advocating for modular defence systems to optimise flexibility and operational effectiveness without over-reliance on numerical parity.

 

The overall discussion highlighted Pakistan’s strategic imperatives to navigate technological advancements and regional security challenges effectively. Emphasising proactive investment in indigenous technologies and adaptive defence strategies, the participants advocated for a nuanced approach that balances economic constraints with the imperative to maintain credible defence capabilities in a rapidly evolving global landscape.

 

Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd), President CASS Lahore, in his concluding remarks highlighted the profound impact of technological advancements on military doctrines and strategies, particularly in air warfare. He emphasised that these innovations are not merely enhancing capabilities but fundamentally reshaping how nations engage in warfare.

 

The discourse focused on the evolving dynamics in South Asia, where India’s pursuit of emerging technologies, including potentially destabilising ones, risks upsetting the regional balance of power. In response, Pakistan is compelled to compete technologically, ensuring its Air Force maintains superiority. Key technological drivers identified include AI for enhanced decision-making and predictive analytics.

 

The President highlighted the strategic use of big data and analytics as pivotal for elevating Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities to unprecedented levels. Real-time data analysis was highlighted as critical for meticulous mission planning and execution, enhancing battlefield success.

 

The President stressed that autonomous systems, such as UAVs, are playing a crucial role in increasing operational flexibility and efficacy while reducing risks to human life. He also highlighted the strategic importance of cyber warfare and the development of advanced weapons like hypersonic and stealth technologies as transformative elements in modern warfare.

 

Additionally, the President recognised space-based assets as a crucial component of national defence, although he stressed that the development of Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons by India poses a significant challenge to Pakistan’s strategic interests in space.

 

The President advocated for integrated joint warfare strategies across air, land, and sea forces to enhance military effectiveness. He stressed the need for Pakistan to remain proactive and innovative, leveraging rapid data processing, improved decision-making and autonomous operations to maintain strategic balance in the South Asian region.

 

In conclusion, the President advocated for embracing cutting-edge technologies through initiatives like the NASTP project which is essential for Pakistan to safeguard its national interests effectively amidst these transformative technological advancements in air warfare.