India’s Emerging Global Significance: Reshaping Regional Dynamics and Strategic Equilibrium

A seminar titled, ‘India’s Emerging Global Significance: Reshaping Regional Dynamics and Strategic Equilibrium’ was organised by the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS), Lahore on 23 August 2023. The discussions commenced with a keynote address by Air Cdre Khalid Banuri (Retd), Former DG Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs (ACDA) Branch, of the Strategic Plans Division (SPD). It was followed by insightful presentations delivered by two eminent scholars in the field, Dr Rabia Akhtar and Dr Adil Sultan. An extensive Q&A session and concluding remarks by Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd), President, CASS Lahore, rounded up the seminar.

 

In her introductory remarks, Nidaa Shahid, Senior Researcher at CASS, Lahore, highlighted the global paradigm shift from a unipolar world to a multipolar system, emphasising the need to adapt to transformative changes shaping international interactions. She underscored India’s emergence as a significant global player, evident in its strategic alliances, economic leverage, and active participation in influential international forums. However, she expressed concerns about India’s military modernisation and policy ambiguity, especially its adoption of policies favouring escalation dominance and deterrence by punishment. India’s exploitation of perceived threats, particularly the Chinese threat, has raised apprehensions about its aggressive intentions.

 

In response to India’s regional assertiveness, Pakistan faces a critical crossroads. Ms Shahid stressed the importance of Pakistan developing comprehensive countermeasures and discerning policy decisions. She urged strategic recalibrations to navigate India’s belligerence and global ambitions effectively.

 

Air Cdre Khalid Banuri (Retd), in his comprehensive keynote address, highlighted the evolving global landscape marked by ultra-nationalism, shifting alliances, and the resurgence of hard power. He emphasised the need for strategic recalibration, focusing on emerging technologies, balancing hard and soft power, and embracing minilateralism in international diplomacy. Discussing India’s dynamics, he underscored the importance of understanding internal disparities and leveraging emerging technologies. He advocated for practical solutions, including proactive public diplomacy, engaging the Pakistani diaspora, and effectively utilising initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Air Cdre Banuri stressed the imperative of moving from ideas to implementation, positioning Pakistan to thrive in an interconnected world.

 

He highlighted the necessity of defining norms for interactive global engagement, prioritising interest-based alliances, and reviving regional cooperation. The keynote speaker encouraged Pakistan to leverage its strategic advantages, tap into emerging technologies, and proactively shape its international image. The speech emphasised practical implementation, urging Pakistan to build on its strengths, fostering a positive self-image, and embracing opportunities in the face of challenges.

 

The second speaker of the day, Dr Rabia Akhtar analysed India’s global ambitions and their impact, particularly on the South Asian region. She said that India’s pursuit of global prominence, as seen in its efforts to bolster its economy, military capabilities, and international influence, is a longstanding strategic objective. Key to this pursuit is countering China’s rise, which is viewed as a strategic threat. India’s strategic and military doctrines, including the Cold Start Doctrine (CSD), focus on deterrence, especially against China and Pakistan.

 

She further highlighted that India’s response to the perceived Chinese threat involves military modernisation, strategic partnerships, and multilateral engagements. Notably, India’s involvement in initiatives like the Quad and organisations like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) underscores its growing regional influence. Dr Akhtar emphasised the power of narratives, highlighting India’s successful framing of Pakistan as a threat, thus shaping international opinions. She urged Pakistan to counter this narrative effectively, emphasising the importance of compelling storytelling alongside strengthening capabilities to reshape the global discourse surrounding India’s rise.

 

She further highlighted that India’s response to the perceived Chinese threat involves military modernisation, strategic partnerships, and multilateral engagements. Notably, India’s involvement in initiatives like the Quad and organisations like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) underscores its growing regional influence. Dr Akhtar emphasised the power of narratives, highlighting India’s successful framing of Pakistan as a threat, thus shaping international opinions. She urged Pakistan to counter this narrative effectively, emphasising the importance of compelling storytelling alongside strengthening capabilities to reshape the global discourse surrounding India’s rise.

 

The third speaker of the day, Dr Adil Sultan, focused on India’s ascent as a global power and its implications for Pakistan. He thought that India had strategically positioned itself by maintaining partnerships with Russia and the US, fostering its role in the US Indo-Pacific strategy. This positioning allowed India to create a narrative in the West, portraying itself as a credible counterforce against China. Dr Sultan outlined challenges faced by Pakistan, including internal political instability, economic decline, and external pressures from India’s assertive stance and the China-US rivalry. He stressed the urgency for Pakistan to reverse its negative trajectory, emphasising the need for internal stability, strategic resource allocation, and a coherent foreign policy aligned with global dynamics.

 

His analysis underscored the imperative for Pakistan to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape effectively. Addressing internal challenges, stabilising the economy, re-evaluating foreign policy, and developing indigenous capacities in emerging technologies are of paramount importance. Failure to do so could have severe implications for Pakistan’s security in the evolving regional and global context.

 

The Q&A session delved into critical aspects of Pakistan’s geopolitical challenges and strategies for the future. The participants highlighted the divergence in India-Pakistan trajectories, emphasising India’s consistent governance and Pakistan’s governance challenges due to rapid population growth and political instability. The need for elite consensus on Pakistan’s trajectory, akin to India’s strategic vision, emerged as a crucial solution, emphasising continuity in policies and avoiding disruptive governance changes.

 

Addressing Pakistan’s historical evolution, the discussion spotlighted the military-centric security orientation and the impact of changes in the education system on the nation’s growth. Concerns were raised about Pakistan’s allocation of security budget, particularly in the maritime domain, with a focus on India’s ambitious global role. Despite recognising India’s emerging power, the participants highlighted India’s internal fault lines, emphasising the importance of countering India’s narrative effectively.

 

A key point of discussion revolved around narratives and perceptions. The experts stressed the importance of consistent narratives and their international acceptability. The discussion emphasised the crucial role of scholars and academics in shaping international perceptions but highlighted the challenges due to limited access to credible information. The significance of strategic thinking, nuanced discourse, and global cooperation in shaping Pakistan’s future narratives and international standing was underscored.

 

In his concluding remarks, Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd) highlighted that the evolving global order presents new challenges and opportunities for nations like India and Pakistan. He emphasised the rise of middle powers, including India, with the ability to influence geopolitics due to military strength, economic power, regional influence, demography, soft power, and diplomatic clout. However, he noted that India’s aggressive pursuit of a global role, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, also raises concerns about regional stability and security.

 

He stressed that India’s shifting strategic stance, especially concerning its nuclear capabilities, is a cause for alarm. While India officially maintains a No-First-Use (NFU) policy, recent statements indicating a willingness to abandon this policy have raised regional tensions. The rise of ultra-nationalism in Indian politics, notably within the BJP, further complicates the situation. He added that the lack of transparency regarding India’s nuclear stockpile and its increasingly aggressive rhetoric pose significant challenges to regional stability.

 

According to the President, the risk of false flag operations, similar to the events of February 2019, remains a serious concern. India’s anti-Pakistan narrative for political gains raises fears of potential escalations, requiring Pakistan to remain vigilant and prepared for any unforeseen aggressive actions.

 

He further highlighted that the increasing number of nuclear warheads in India has significant implications for Pakistan’s security, politics, and economy. It escalates the risks of arms race, strains regional ties, and complicates non-proliferation efforts. He concluded that to mitigate these risks, the international community must engage India in constructive dialogues for arms control initiatives. Addressing these challenges requires diplomatic efforts, regional alliances, and a focus on peace-building.