Emerging Trends in Aerospace Power: Options for Pakistan

A seminar titled “Emerging Trends in Aerospace Power: Options for Pakistan” was organised by the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS), Lahore on 17 August, 2023. Aerospace power is the ability to use air and space capabilities to achieve wide-ranging civil and military objectives in economic, commercial and scientific domains. Pakistan stands at the threshold of numerous opportunities to capitalise on emerging trends like space exploration, satellite technology, unmanned aerial systems, and electric propulsion of green aviation. The seminar focused on options for Pakistan regarding aerospace power.

 

The seminar commenced with a keynote address by Major General Ahmed Bilal (Retd), former Chairman Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO), followed by insightful presentations delivered by two eminent scholars in the field of space, Dr Ali Sarosh and Dr Ahmed Saeed Minhas. An extensive Q&A session and concluding remarks by Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd), President, CASS, Lahore, rounded up the seminar.

 

In his introductory remarks, Air Commodore Khalid Iqbal (Retd), Director National Security, CASS, Lahore, gave a brief overview of the different military and civilian applications of aerospace power. He highlighted that space has already been weaponised and militarisation of space is only a matter of time. There is an ownership dilemma in the aerospace sector with each spacefaring nation racing to claim the top spot. The increasing integration of aerospace power with other domains such as land, air, sea, cyber, etc. has made the battlefield highly integrated and complex. He said that keeping aside the organisational inclinations, the ultimate wish of a typical aerospace strategist is the seamlessly integrated usage of air and space mediums and forces. Pointing out that Pakistan’s space programme was at a nascent stage and in an inordinate lag viz-a-viz its neighbours; the speaker urged for an immediate policy review to make up for the lost time.

 

Major General Ahmed Bilal, drawing from his vast experience of having worked with the Strategic Plans Division (SPD) as well as his five-year service as Chairman SUPARCO, delivered an enlightening keynote address on space technology’s impact on socio-economic development and national security. He highlighted space’s role in propelling nations forward and fortifying defence capabilities, emphasising its potential for societal empowerment and economic growth. Acknowledging Pakistan’s early entry into space in the 1960s, he noted a pivotal turning point in 2000 when SUPARCO’s revival was entrusted to the SPD. The fusion of civilian and military applications in the rapidly evolving global landscape was underlined, with satellites reshaping society, science, strategy, and commerce.

 

Major General Bilal highlighted Pakistan’s unique standing as a nuclear state, where mastering aerospace technology enhances economic viability and national stature. He delved into aerospace trends, from digitisation to additive manufacturing and immersive technologies. Pakistan’s strategic focus areas, such as remote sensing satellites and Artificial Intelligence (AI), were outlined to bolster both national development and security. Challenges hindering Pakistan’s journey, including lack of resolve, economic fragility, and reliance on borrowed technology, were addressed. He added that key impediments in the way of implementing a credible space programme were insufficient resource allocation (especially finances) and placement of SUPARCO under a military setup. India’s budgetary allocation for its civilian component of space programme, run by Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) during fiscal year 2022–23 was Indian Rupees 126 billion while Pakistan’s total allocation was a meagre Rs7.4 billion. He was of the view that pathways of Pakistan’s progress in space programme pass through civilian ownership.

 

He highlighted a three-pronged national strategy as the way forward for Pakistan: firstly, ensuring full-scale applicability of available aerospace capabilities and resources for socioeconomic development and national security; secondly, achieving self-sufficiency and indigenisation as far as possible in the short to medium term, meeting the basic needs over the complete spectrum of aerospace; and thirdly, synergising the national effort for sustained growth of the aerospace sector.

 

Major General Bilal urged the creation of a well-defined National Space Policy, reflecting a firm collective commitment that involves all stakeholders. The policy should address the diverse needs of development, defence, education, and international collaboration. This structured approach is essential to align national goals, drive progress, and overcome bureaucratic hurdles.

 

The second speaker of the day, Dr Ali Sarosh, Associate Professor, Air University, and a leading expert on space-related research and development (R&D) focused on the evolution of space power in South Asia, both in civilian and military applications. He highlighted the significant changes in global space power dynamics over the last two decades, where once-prominent space technology leaders are now seeking new advancements, while commercial players are driving innovation and competition in space. South Asian countries have made notable strides in space development due to both necessity and rivalry, with civilian applications of space technology permeating the region’s households.

 

Dr Sarosh emphasised India’s substantial progress in the space domain, positioning itself decades ahead of Pakistan. India’s approach, marked by a robust commercial space programme preceding military endeavours, has proven effective. He delved into the concept of space power, which encompasses the projection of influence through space in both civilian and military domains, underscoring its significance in 21st century warfare.

 

Dr Sarosh detailed various aspects of space warfare, including co-orbital anti-satellite operations, direct ascent anti-satellite systems, electronic warfare, directed energy weapons, and space situational awareness. Comparing the threat matrices of India and Pakistan, he highlighted India’s greater perceived threat from China’s advanced space capabilities, leading to the need for India’s aggressive counter-space programmes. Dr Sarosh recommended Pakistan adopt a holistic approach, focusing on sustainability, evolvability, and survivability. He suggested creating an integrated think tank, fostering a public-private partnership culture, and developing a strong military space programme. He also urged Pakistan to leverage dual-usage technologies for commercial and military purposes, aiming for a sustainable space economy and indigenous counter-space capabilities over the next few decades.

 

While concluding his talk, Dr Sarosh emphasised that Pakistan’s path to becoming a credible space power lies in cultivating a balanced space programme that addresses both commercial and military needs while contributing to regional growth and security.

 

The third speaker of the day, Dr Ahmed Saeed Minhas, Pro Vice Chancellor, DHA Suffa University Karachi, emphasised the importance of space laws to regulate global space activities, considering challenges arising from states’ self-centred behaviour. He highlighted that Pakistan’s space aspirations lag behind India’s, necessitating corrective measures. He analysed key UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolutions and space treaties. These included UNGA Resolutions 1148, 1348, and 1472, which led to the formation of the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS). He also discussed the landmark Outer Space Treaty (OST) of 1967, a cornerstone treaty which bans weapons of mass destruction in space and encourages cooperation. Other treaties which are also important in this regard focus on liability, astronaut rescue, and satellite registration.

 

He emphasised that despite this plethora of treaties and resolutions, there still exist gaps in space-related laws and regulations. The term “peaceful purposes” lacks clarity, and conventional weapons in space are not covered. Existing treaties lack provisions against space debris from anti-satellite (ASAT) tests and long-term sustainability concerns. Informal initiatives like Technical Confidence Building Measures (TCBMs) and codes of conduct contribute to trust but are non-binding.

 

Dr Minhas proposed a comprehensive strategy for Pakistan to reinvigorate its space programme, focusing on cooperation, innovation, policy development, and international engagement. While comparing India’s success, starting in the late 1950s, he said that Pakistan’s space programme faced challenges due to economic constraints, military focus, and budget diversion. To revitalise its programme, Dr Minhas suggested the following strategies: diplomatic efforts to remove SUPARCO from the US Entity List, seeking Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) membership, and partnering with China for satellite technology. He also advocated for prioritising self-reliance, allocating more funds, involving the private sector, developing IT skills, and establishing national space policies. Collaboration with other spacefaring nations, fostering student interests, and transparent communication about projects are also of vital importance.

 

During the Q&A and discussion session, various observers raised significant points regarding the challenges and potential of Pakistan’s space programme. Concerns were voiced about brain drain, lack of incentives for experts to return to Pakistan, and the need for a standby system. The panelists emphasised the importance of creating an enabling ecosystem, public-private partnerships, and tapping the untapped capabilities. The gap between rhetoric and practical implementation, especially in data utilisation, was highlighted, with bureaucratic bottlenecks and policy shifts being the key obstacles. The discussion also centered on the lack of national resolve beyond financial constraints, with examples of underutilised resources and the need to harness Pakistan’s potential for space endeavours.

 

In his concluding remarks, Air Marshal Asim Suleiman highlighted the transformative impact of space technology in contemporary times. He emphasised the significant role it plays in communication, navigation, remote sensing, and military applications. While acknowledging Pakistan’s early entry into the space domain, he pointed out the need for accelerated progress. Drawing attention to the growing number of satellites orbiting the Earth, he stressed the importance of leveraging space technology for socioeconomic growth and military readiness.

 

He highlighted the critical components of a successful space programme, including space economy, military applications, satellite communications, navigation constellations, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, counter-space operations, and miscellaneous space-based activities. He pointed out India’s advancements in these areas and the imperative for Pakistan to bridge existing gaps. Stressing the need for a robust space policy, he urged realistic goal-setting, private sector involvement, and emphasis on R&D.

 

Furthermore, he emphasised the evolving nature of space law, highlighting the treaties and conventions established by the United Nations. In this context, he stressed the importance of a comprehensive national space policy that aligns with ground realities, national ambitions, and international considerations. In conclusion, he stressed the significance of setting achievable goals, allocating resources, and establishing a robust institutional framework to ensure the success of Pakistan’s space endeavours.