Seminar
Adapting to Strategic Complexities Innovating Approaches to Arms Control in South Asia
September 10, 2024
The seminar focused on innovative arms control strategies in South Asia, addressing the nuclear rivalry between India and Pakistan and promoting dialogue to reduce conflict risks.
About The Event
In an increasingly complex global security environment, the need for innovative approaches to arms control has become more critical than ever, particularly in the context of South Asia. The dynamics between the two nuclear-armed states, India and Pakistan, present unique challenges that require thoughtful analysis and strategic dialogue.
The interplay of historical grievances, territorial disputes, and national identities contributes to a highly charged atmosphere, where misunderstandings can escalate into severe crises. Since both nations acquired nuclear capabilities in 1998, their rivalry has transformed into a precarious balance of power, where the doctrine of deterrence plays a vital role in shaping military strategies and national policies. However, the potential for miscalculations remains alarmingly high, particularly given the presence of newer missile systems, aggressive military postures and the increasing sophistication of military technologies.
Moreover, the evolving geopolitical landscape, characterised by shifting alliances and external influences, further adds complexity to the arms control discourse. The strategic partnership between the United States and India, for instance, has implications for Pakistan’s security calculus, prompting it to enhance its own defence capabilities. Additionally, regional dynamics involving China, which plays a significant role in South Asia, further complicate the security environment and the prospects for meaningful dialogue.
Given these challenges, it is imperative that policymakers, scholars, and security experts engage in robust discussions aimed at fostering mutual understanding and developing innovative arms control mechanisms. By addressing the underlying issues and exploring creative solutions, stakeholders can work toward a more stable and secure future for the region.
The seminar provided a platform for insightful discussions and presentations by eminent speakers, shedding light on the importance of responsible nuclear stewardship, the evolution of military strategies, and the pressing need for effective arms control measures to foster mutual trust and reduce the risks of accidental nuclear exchanges.
Key Takeaways
- Nuclear Weapons as Equaliser
Pakistan’s nuclear programme has neutralised India’s conventional military superiority, serving as a permanent deterrent against Indian aggression, constraining its military options and forcing it to adopt more cautious strategies in its dealings with Pakistan.
- Comprehensive Policy of Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD)
Pakistan’s FSD, including a robust triad of nuclear forces and a variety of missile systems, ensures comprehensive coverage and strengthens deterrence against all levels of conflict, particularly against India’s BMD.
- Missile Defence Challenges
Despite significant investment, missile defence systems, including those of the U.S. and India, have limitations, with success rates often below 60% in controlled environments. India’s claimed 90% interception success rate remains questionable.
- Arms Control vs Disarmament
While arms control may be a viable diplomatic option for Pakistan if balanced and non-discriminatory, disarmament must be rejected outright as it would weaken Pakistan’s strategic position and invite aggression from India.
- Miniaturisation of Warheads
MIRV Technology has augmented India’s ability to miniaturise its nuclear warheads, thereby also enhancing its cruise missile capabilities to the detriment of regional strategic stability.
- India’s Changing Nuclear Posture
India’s shifting nuclear posture, from recessed deterrence to counter-force first strike options, potential changes in the No-First-Use policy and cannisterisation of missile systems, altogether raise new challenges for regional strategic stability.
- Limitations of Traditional Arms Control
Traditional arms control agreements between India and Pakistan, such as those controlling weapons production and deployment, have been largely ineffective, whereas CBMs have had limited success in building trust.
- Rejection of Multilateral Missile Restraint Regimes
The idea of triangular or quadrilateral missile restraint regimes involving Pakistan, India, China, and US is unrealistic. China’s focus on deterring the US makes any restraint regime between all three unfeasible.
Policy Considerations
- Leverage Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD)
FSD must be maintained and enhanced to counter both conventional and tactical threats, including India’s Cold Start Doctrine, ensuring that deterrence operates effectively at all levels.
- Prioritising Nuclear Deterrence
Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence has closed the space for any conventional misadventure from the Indian side. Pakistan must continue to prioritise a strong nuclear deterrent posture to prevent any future escalation and maintain regional stability.
- Cost-Effective Technologies
While adopting new technologies, Pakistan must avoid being swayed by costly innovations that may not deliver significant strategic advantages, focusing instead on proven, practical solutions.
- Addressing India’s Evolving Nuclear Posture
Pakistan must consider India’s shift towards a more ready-on-launch nuclear posture and closely monitor the internal debates surrounding its No-First-Use policy. This vigilance will help Pakistan reassess its own strategic force readiness and prepare for potential changes that could impact regional stability.
- Reassess Liquid-Fuelled Missiles
With compressed reaction times, the utility of liquid-fuelled missiles may diminish, and Pakistan may have to consider phasing them out in favour of more rapid-launch alternatives.
- Pursue Targeted CBMs
Targeted CBMs in areas like cyber-security, prevention of incidents at sea, and information sharing on peaceful nuclear technology could pave the way for improved relations between India and Pakistan.
- Avoid Overreliance on Arms Control Initiatives
Arms control initiatives, while valuable in certain contexts, should not be seen as the primary tool for achieving strategic stability. Pakistan must remain focused on maintaining its deterrence capabilities as the core element of its security strategy.
Post Event Report
A comprehensive report capturing expert analyses, strategic insights, key recommendations, media coverage, and event highlights.
Guest Speakers
Lt General Khalid Ahmed Kidwai (Retd)
Advisor, National Command Authority (NCA)
Lt Gen Kidwai currently serves as an Advisor at the National Command Authority. He is a distinguished graduate of Pakistan’s Command and Staff College, National Defence University, and the US Army Field Artillery School in Oklahoma. Throughout his career, Lt Gen Kidwai has held key command and staff positions, including serving as the founding Director General of the Strategic Plans Division (SPD) for 15 years. In this role, he was pivotal in developing and executing Pakistan’s nuclear policy and deterrence doctrine, building a robust nuclear force. He also oversaw the establishment of the Army, Navy, and Air Force Strategic Force Commands and played a critical role in the development and operationalisation of various nuclear weapons.
In addition to his contributions to nuclear strategy, Lt Gen Kidwai has been instrumental in shaping Pakistan’s Civilian Nuclear Energy Vision-2050 and the National Space Programme-2047. With 56 years of highly meritorious military service, he has received numerous accolades, including the sword of honour, Nishan-i-Imtiaz, Hilal-i-Imtiaz, and Hilal-i-Imtiaz (Military), in recognition of his exceptional service and leadership.
Dr Naeem Salik
Executive Director, Strategic Vision Institute (SVI)
Dr Naeem Salik is the Executive Director at the Strategic Vision Institute in Islamabad. He holds a PhD in Political Science & International Relations from the University of Western Australia, an MSc in Strategic Studies from the University of Wales, and a Master’s in History from Punjab University. Dr Salik has been pivotal in nuclear safety, security, and export controls and previously served as Director for Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs at the Strategic Plans Division. He is also a Visiting Fellow at Stanford University and the Stimson Centre.
Dr Salik’s expertise covers South Asian security, focusing on Indian and Pakistani nuclear and missile policies, nuclear non-proliferation, arms control, disarmament, and confidence-building measures. He has authored four books, including The Genesis of South Asian Nuclear Deterrence: Pakistan’s Perspective (2010) and India’s Habituation with the Bomb: Nuclear Learning in South Asia (2020). His extensive scholarly work includes over 40 research articles in peer-reviewed journals.
Amb Zamir Akram (Retd)
Advisor Strategic Plans Division (SPD)
Amb Zamir Akram currently serves as an advisor to Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division and is a visiting faculty member in the Department of Strategic Studies at Air University. A graduate of the London School of Economics and Political Science, Amb Akram joined the Pakistan Foreign Service in 1978. Over his 37-year career, he has held prominent diplomatic roles, including Pakistan’s Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the UN, international organisations in Geneva, and Nepal. From 2005 to 2008, he was Additional Secretary of Foreign Affairs in the Prime Minister’s Office and also served as Additional Secretary for Disarmament and Arms Control. Ambassador Akram’s academic work includes several research papers and the book The Security Imperative: Pakistan’s Nuclear Deterrence and Diplomacy. He is also a frequent contributor to national and international newspapers.
Event Chair
Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd)
President CASS, Lahore
Event Coordinator
Nidaa Shahid
Senior Researcher, CASS Lahore
Master of The Ceremony
Shayan Jamy
Researcher, CASS Lahore
The Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS) was established in July 2021 to inform policymakers and the public about issues related to aerospace and security from an independent, non-partisan and future-centric analytical lens.
@2025 – All Right Reserved with CASS Lahore.