RECASTING COLD WAR LOGICS IN THE DIGITAL AGE: A SOUTH ASIAN PERSPECTIVE

This paper tests whether Cold War stability logics can be applied to a multi-domain rivalry shaped by artificial intelligence (AI), cyber operations, and space services in South Asia. Using a qualitative, comparative case-study method (2019–2025) that synthesises official documents, reputable analyses, and the May 2025 crisis, it evaluates strategic stability and the security dilemma under conditions of “entanglement,” where dual-use networks support both conventional and nuclear functions. The study finds that India’s integration of AI into sensing, decision support, and air/air-defense teaming compresses decision time and muddies intent, while Pakistan’s institution-first approach (CENTAIC, NASTP, telecom cyber governance) tilts toward denial and human-in-the-loop control. Cyber deterrence works better by denial than punishment; space investments that prioritise resilient communications and rapid reconstitution contribute to crisis assurance if transparently non-weaponised. The 2025 episode, featuring multi-domain operations and effective Pakistani cyber defense (67–0), shows AI/cyber can aid restraint through rapid verification, yet raise pressure through accelerated cycles. The paper proposes adapted Cold War tools: Flexible Response for the digital domain, ring-fencing AI from nuclear C3I and missile-defense cueing, incident channels for cyber/space, and resilience metrics for C3ISR. Cold War dynamics help, but only when re-engineered around human authorisation, transparency, and network resilience.

 

Keywords: Strategic stability, Artificial intelligence, Cyber operations, Space security, South Asia, Deterrence