Encroaching on Disaster

Recent devastating floods have once again reminded us that Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climate change. An exceptionally heavy monsoon has caused flash floods and urban deluges that have left at least 695 dead across Pakistan. Flooding is a natural phenomenon in the Indus basin, as rivers swell each monsoon and reclaim their floodplains. Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of floods manifold, exacerbating the issue. However, the destruction in recent floods owes as much to governance gaps as to global climate change.

Conventional wisdom dictates that rivers always come back to reclaim their plains, which extend to the point where the last stone lies along the shore. Anything within this belongs to the river, so the state’s inability to regulate rivers reveals a deeper breakdown of institutional authority. Continuous destruction by floods represents Pakistan’s structural crisis, where governance failures intersect with the ecological dynamics.

The rampant encroachment of riverbeds and water channels is a chief reason why floods have become so destructive in Pakistan. Around two dozen major rivers crisscross the country. Almost along all of these waterways, homes, hotels, and farms have encroached deep into the floodplain in blatant violation of regulations. A recent survey revealed 38 illegal structures along a mere 30 km stretch of the Swat River. This highlights how real estate developers have seized riverbank land that should serve as a safety buffer between the river and human settlements. Meanwhile, explosive population growth, which now exceeds 240 million, has forced many communities into harm’s way. Resultantly, unplanned settlements have extended onto vulnerable riverbanks and drains. Additionally, the timber mafia, as well as illegal mining and stone crushing activities, have further deteriorated the natural landscape and intensified the floods.

Downstream, in the Indus’ “kaccha” plains, thousands of farming families live within the river’s natural course and are displaced every monsoon. Cities like Karachi and Lahore face parallel problems as unchecked urbanisation has seen drainage nullahs narrowed or choked with illegal construction and waste, leaving no outlet for heavy rain. Karachi’s storm sewer system, for example, was built decades ago for a city of only a few million residents and is now utterly overwhelmed by a population of over 20 million, with drains clogged by encroachments.

This disaster-prone status quo stems from governance failures, as successive regimes have neglected land-use laws or even facilitated encroachments under the guise of political patronage and corruption. A recent anti-encroachment drive in Swat uncovered illegal riverbank structures owned by a former provincial governor and a sitting minister, indicating that the powerful flout the rules with impunity. For years, officials turned a blind eye towards or even issued permits for such projects, reflecting deep institutional complicity. Yet, none of the officials who approved such developments have faced accountability, breeding a regime of tolerance for misconduct that persists until disaster strikes.

Indeed, no country can allow construction literally in the path of a river. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has also noted that the government cannot continue to bail out those who build in harm’s way. He vowed to crack down on illegal encroachments country-wide. This year, authorities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the province hardest hit, began demolishing dozens of unauthorised hotels, restaurants, and other structures along swollen rivers. These belated actions faced resistance from the locals, and at some places, angry business owners even attacked officials during demolitions, a demonstration of public apathy towards the disasters as well as national laws.

The worsening effects of climate change and the 2025 flash floods serve as a poignant reminder to address this long-neglected problem. Firstly, the state should survey and map all riverine encroachments using satellite imagery and remove those sites that pose a risk to people. Secondly, the government must also leverage international climate finance to relocate communities away from high-risk flood zones and to restore natural floodplain buffers. Thirdly, population control must be prioritised in parallel, because unchecked population growth is pushing more and more people into hazard zones near riverbeds. Lastly, investing in robust early warning systems is equally vital. There is a need to install more advanced weather radars, river gauges, and community alert networks that can save lives through timely evacuations.

While climate change amplifies the hazards, it is human decisions about where we build, how we govern and whether we heed scientific warnings that determine if heavy rains become a catastrophe or a manageable event. Pakistan’s recurring flood tragedies will only be tamed when both nature’s fury and human folly are addressed together.