Lessons from Zarb-e-Karrar: What Next?

PAKISTAN secured a remarkable victory over India during a period of modest expectations. In the West, the country was systematically denied access to avenues of economic, diplomatic, and military support, owing to the prevailing geopolitical priorities.

Nonetheless, it triumphed over an adversary widely regarded as the West’s principal hope in countering a rising power, China. If this is not cause for celebration, then what is? This moment presents the nation with an opportunity to craft a grand narrative and refine its strategic communication. While there is no need for euphoria, it would be a disservice to downplay the significance of this achievement. It marks a watershed in regional dynamics, and Pakistan must capitalize on it.

The respect earned is not transactional, as some suggest; rather, it reflects a deeper truth about human nature as manifested in state behavior. Among nations, the image has now been instated: of a nation that can fight, and one that has taken the wind out of India, which saw itself as a regional hegemon.

There are lessons embedded in this episode that will shape the future of the region. First Lesson: The Armed forces, under the leadership of Field Marshal General Asim Munir and Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Babar Sidhu, drowned India’s grand designs of ‘Akhand Bharat’ and its perceived role as the regional net security provider in the depths of the Indian Ocean. India’s defeat culminated in a loss so profound it reshaped the nation’s strategic identity. Its credibility as the guarantor of regional order has been fundamentally compromised. This outcome has permanently altered India’s trajectory, not merely in terms of military capability, but more significantly in its global perception.

The veneer of invincibility has been stripped away, and with it, the strategic narrative that once underpinned its regional posture. India’s diplomatic meltdown that followed after the events of May war, is the evidence of India’s reputational nosedive in global affairs. Second Lesson: India’s centre of gravity, Rafale in the air and the S-400 on the ground, was effectively neutralised by the Pakistan Air Force. This achievement, for detractors raises a critical question: why did India opt for a ceasefire on 10th May? The answer lies in what would have transpired from the 11th May onwards had the ceasefire not been concluded. India’s air force was effectively grounded, a fact acknowledged by its own Chief of Defence Staff, General Anil Chauhan.

Reduced to deploying drones for its air campaign, which is poor man’s weapon of choice, as it is reminiscence of how weaker parties in the Middle East and Europe have turned to such instruments under duress.

Meanwhile, the PAF was fully poised to launch a sustained offensive air campaign. India was down and under, with no credible response to PAF’s notch-two-up manoeuvre. They were checkmated, fully aware that they could not match the tempo of war set by the PAF. Exit was the only option left.

Third Lesson: India’s indigenous capability is not worth the hype that surrounds it. The myth of the BrahMos missile system was shattered during the conflict. Widely advertised as a game-changing weapon, its effectiveness in the theatre of war proved underwhelming. The armed forces of Pakistan successfully neutralised the barrage of attacks through a combination of soft and hard kills. India failed to achieve the strategic outcomes it had anticipated by employing BrahMos missiles.

The gap between projection and performance was laid bare. These lessons have reshaped the way the world perceives South Asia’s strategic equilibrium. This is not a transactional phase; it is a reality the international community has acknowledged, and is now engaging with Pakistan accordingly, offering space in avenues from which it was once excluded. The longevity of this phase depends entirely on Pakistan: on how deftly it plays its cards in an ever-morphing global order. Pakistan must now focus on the fungibility of power – translating its proven military capability into diplomatic and economic mileage.

Pakistan’s next challenge is not merely to navigate the turbulent winds of geopolitical storms, but to shape them, while walking a tightrope in balancing its relations with both the United States and China. India will likely continue to play the role of spoiler in the region, driven by its ambition to ascend the ladder of global prestige, at the expense of its neighbours. In light of this, Pakistan must remain militarily prepared to counter any future designs India may harbour.