Shadow Wars: Grey Zone Threats and Pakistan’s Security Dilemmas

The seminar titled “Shadow Wars: Grey Zone Threats and Pakistan’s Security Dilemmas” was organised by the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies, Lahore, on 17th April 2025. The discussion commenced with the introductory remarks of Dr Bilal Ghazanfar, Editor, at CASS Lahore. Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, Dean, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, delivered the keynote address. It was followed by an insightful presentation by two experts: Dr Aneel Salman, Chair for Economic Security, IPRI and Syed Muhammad Ali, Chairman, PEMRA, Committee of Complaints, Islamabad. An extensive interactive session, followed by concluding remarks by Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd), President of CASS, Lahore, rounded off the seminar.

 

In his introductory remarks, Dr Bilal Ghazanfar explained that the grey zone is a space of strategic competition below the threshold of open warfare, marked by ambiguity, plausible deniability, and asymmetric tactics. He noted that for Pakistan, this is not a theoretical concept but a lived experience, with the country facing hybrid threats such as disinformation, irregular warfare, and strategic coercion. These non-linear attacks—spanning information, finance, technology, and public perception—challenge traditional security frameworks and demand a reimagined, integrated national response. He stressed the need for a comprehensive understanding of grey zone conflicts to effectively identify vulnerabilities and build resilience.

 

In his keynote address, Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal traced the evolution of grey zone warfare, linking its current tactics to historical strategic thought. He emphasised that while the terminology may be recent, the underlying concepts are rooted in classical military theory. Drawing on Sun Tzu, he explained that strategy is inherently dynamic, combining direct and indirect methods to achieve objectives. With the increasing lethality of modern weaponry, conventional warfare has become less practical, prompting a shift towards perception-based and unconventional forms of conflict. Dr Jaspal noted that weaker actors often rely on guerrilla tactics, cyber warfare, and information operations to offset conventional disadvantages, while stronger actors engaging in such methods give rise to discourses on fifth-generation warfare, characterised by non-kinetic tools, norm manipulation, and covert action.

 

He further examined the rise of hybrid and grey zone warfare, where states utilise psychological, media, and legal tools to pursue strategic aims without crossing the threshold of open warfare. Dr Jaspal highlighted the Cold War as a key period that shaped these approaches, with nuclear deterrence pushing rivals towards indirect methods of competition. Grey zone tactics, he noted, deliberately blur legal and normative boundaries, complicating attribution, deterrence, and escalation control. He stressed the need for strategic clarity in defining these threats and urged Pakistan to formulate context-specific countermeasures tailored to its regional dynamics, rather than relying on Western frameworks of conflict.

 

The first speaker of the day, Dr Aneel Salman, explored the growing prominence of economic warfare within grey zone conflicts, noting that modern strategic competition is increasingly waged through markets rather than military means. He explained how states now utilise financial pressure, trade restrictions, and targeted sanctions as instruments of coercion, arguing that economic tools have become the new weapons of influence. Citing examples such as China’s rare-earth export ban on Japan, India’s vaccine diplomacy, and Russia’s manipulation of gas supplies, he underscored how these non-military actions can cause significant disruption, altering economic dependencies and reshaping geopolitical alliances.

 

Dr Salman cautioned that Pakistan’s economy is particularly susceptible to such grey zone tactics, with vulnerabilities stemming from high external debt, cyber threats, and a large informal sector. He argued that economic weaknesses should no longer be viewed solely as fiscal issues but as critical national security concerns. In response, he proposed the ‘PakEco Shield’—a strategic framework aimed at enhancing economic resilience. This approach advocates for proactive intelligence gathering, independent narrative-building, legal warfare (lawfare), cyber-financial defence, and robust international economic diplomacy to counter grey zone threats effectively.

 

The second speaker of the day, Syed Muhammad Ali, examined how information warfare has emerged as a central instrument of influence, often proving more effective than conventional military force in shaping narratives and public perception. He argued that in the digital age, controlling narratives is fundamental to national security, as conflicts are increasingly waged through media, technology, and information manipulation rather than on physical battlefields.

 

He emphasised Pakistan’s vulnerability to misinformation campaigns, particularly on digital platforms where foreign narratives are strategically amplified to erode national cohesion. Citing the EU DisinfoLab’s revelation of India’s long-running media network aimed at spreading anti-Pakistan propaganda, he underscored the scale and intent behind such efforts. Mr Ali contended that intellectual sovereignty is vital for resisting disinformation, calling for the cultivation of indigenous thought leadership, narrative-building capabilities, and a deeper grasp of information warfare. Without assertive counter-narratives, he warned, external actors will continue to influence global perceptions of Pakistan’s economy, politics, and security.

 

The interactive session addressed key issues concerning Pakistan’s security and economic landscape. It was noted that Pakistan’s AI policy is nearing completion, with a focus on cybersecurity and inclusivity. While policymakers acknowledge grey zone threats, effective implementation of countermeasures remains inconsistent. Ethnic harmony was highlighted as vital to prevent external exploitation of internal divisions.

 

Discussions also covered the challenge of balancing climate commitments with economic constraints, urging a shift towards adaptation and market-based solutions over subsidies. The concept of grey deterrence was explored, stressing the need for credible denial and punishment strategies. Finally, experts emphasised the importance of narrative sovereignty, calling for Pakistan to actively shape global perceptions of its economic and strategic outlook.

 

Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd), President CASS, Lahore, delivered the concluding remarks. He highlighted that conflicts no longer hinge solely on military might but now span economic, technological, and narrative spheres. He described strategic coercion as a central feature of grey zone warfare where diplomatic, economic, and cyber measures are employed to manipulate and influence the behaviour of adversaries.

 

He cautioned that Pakistan remains exposed to indirect forms of aggression, including economic pressure, disinformation campaigns, cyber intrusions, and strategic subversion. To address these multifaceted threats, he advocated for a comprehensive strategy that combines economic resilience, technological progress, and strengthened intelligence capabilities to resist and respond to external challenges effectively.